Waymo will have challenges scaling rapidly, but they may be able to get some sort of favorable unit economics and expand more slowly.

Tesla has the scale and for some reason regulators give them a pass. I wouldn't bet against Elon, but we aren't there yet...

Writing off lidar that early is killing Tesla's chances imho. The exec who took that decision should hate himself.

Teslas have no redundancy for their sensors and depend upon unreliable GPS. They have some level of redundant processing, but I've seen FSD disengage because of software faults without anything taking over.

They should never be allowed to run a rideshare service just due to this even if they do miraculously solve camera-only perception and not relying on HD maps.