You have to wonder which of those trends are "secular" (in the economics sense) and which are indirect causes of high unemployment.
The article already hints at this: Apart from the young cohort (until mid-20s), the rise in men going to school is probably less about an increased desire for education and more about an inability to find work. More men caring for their families may be a good thing (increasing equality between men and women in practice), but it may also be a symptom of high unemployment. And is it really plausible that more men are disabled today compared to 15 years ago? It seems more plausible that there is a grey area of disability, and a bad economy drives more men in this grey area to apply for disability benefits.
> And is it really plausible that more men are disabled today compared to 15 years ago?
Yes, that seems plausible to me. For example, there have been a number of combat operations the intervening 15 years; if someone left the military due to injury, they would be counted in the disability figures, but not in the employment ones. NPR did a big story on the factors behind this a while ago:
Another big factor is that states are incentivized to move people off of welfare (which the individual states pay for) onto disability (which the nation pays for through Social Security). So a rise in disabled workers has also coincided with a decline of people on welfare -- it's just private companies shuffling people around without improving their condition.
To be fair, the NPR article was not without controversy. A number of groups objected to the way it was presented, including former Social Security commissioners.
The numbers of disabled combat veterans are a tragedy, but they are really a drop in the bucket compared to the wider population. The numbers of people that have some medical condition that would allow them to work a job, if such jobs were available, is where the meat of that increase comes in. Then you have the perverse incentives by which someone on the low end of the pay scale can take a job, and be much worse off than if they stay on the dole, due to various other support programs getting cut off (free health care, fuel assistance, SNAP benefits, etc).
I think the article assumes too much that college is just a way to get a job. Culturally, it's also a luxury good--an extended bit of adolescence with lots of socializing. And it's something that as a society we have tried to make possible for larger swaths of society, through guaranteed student loans, etc.
You're right on the point about disability, though.
You can be disabled and still be able to do some types of work. But if the only kind of work that is available requires a strong health body (no chronic health issues), then going on disability is appropriate.
> And is it really plausible that more men are disabled today compared to 15 years ago?
Sure. The population is much older than it was 15 years ago.
I wouldn't care to speculate whether that makes up all the difference, but having a disability and trying to overcome ageism at the same time sounds pretty brutal.
I think it's because certain psychological conditions are now classified as disabilities and make you eligible for government assistance. See the so-called "autismbux" -- people presenting mental disorder symptoms to a doctor with the purpose of being classified as disabled, so they can have an income. The amount involved is pretty small, but it can be the difference between a sort-of normal life and homelessness for some people.
The article already hints at this: Apart from the young cohort (until mid-20s), the rise in men going to school is probably less about an increased desire for education and more about an inability to find work. More men caring for their families may be a good thing (increasing equality between men and women in practice), but it may also be a symptom of high unemployment. And is it really plausible that more men are disabled today compared to 15 years ago? It seems more plausible that there is a grey area of disability, and a bad economy drives more men in this grey area to apply for disability benefits.