But a 2.5% penalty for someone who makes $150,000 is a great deal for emergency care. Obviously family and kids change the decision-making process, but if I were single and making $150k, I'd rather pay a $3750 penalty and get free emergency room care (as anyone can today) than pay an insurance company $600/month.

In the end, passing a law that create more demand for private insurance services has little chance of driving the price down.