I think it's easier to relate to a coin flip if we use an "unfair coin". 90% of ... | Hacker News

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		mox1 on Jan 30, 2015 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: The Man Who Knows Whether Any Startup Will Live or... I think it's easier to relate to a coin flip if we use an "unfair coin". 90% of the time the coin flip returns tails (aka fail). 10% of the time it returns heads (aka win). For a given coin flip, their algorithm can predict the results 50% of the time. At this point I don't remember the calculations off the top of my head, but it involves a Binomial distribution.

RogerL on Jan 30, 2015 [–]

Hmm, I can predict that 90% of the time, so I don't follow.

kylebrown on Jan 30, 2015 | [–]

That prediction doesn't improve over the prior. So its no better than the (biased) coin flip.

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