Where did the number 62,000 come from? Are they eliminating a class of simulations that involve differentiating results of games between two teams that are both out of it? Wins by Jacksonville?
Never really thought of it as a 3^n problem before. Interesting. Thanks for this!
It’s just an arbitrary number that’s hopefully large enough that everyone sees approximately the same result. It would be nice to calculate the exact variance of our estimate, though. (An earlier version continued simulating indefinitely but we thought it was better to stop at a certain point.)
Never really thought of it as a 3^n problem before. Interesting. Thanks for this!