Nice visualisation but assumptions seem to be based on past performance in world cups. The Netherlands is supposed to have the 6th best defense in the competition, which is ludicrous.
> assumptions seem to be based on past performance in world cups
Not even that: England has a 35% chance of winning their match against Italy, which only has 33%. Overall stats in the competition are twice as good for Italy, as you can see at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-25233859
