Drones are already widespread, which I discussed in a previous comment.[0] Like all technology, Pandora's Box has been opened and there's really nothing that can be done to stop people from developing ever more sophisticated drones. America did not invent drones and it has never been the only source for the technology. Countries like Israel and South Africa were using modern tactical drones in combat long before the first Predator took to the skies.
But drones aren't the real issue, they're still relatively unsophisticated aircraft that, even when armed, are not any more deadly than manned combat aircraft and the array of sophisticated weaponry that most countries have access to.
The real issue is the rapid development of robotics, of which UAVs (aka drones) are a subset, that promises to dramatically change warfare. The first robots equipped with AI software to automatically identify and shoot at targets will probably be ground robots like the Talon or SWORDS, not UAVs flying 20 000 ft above the battlefield. Russia is already experimenting with such autonomous AIs on their Taifun-M robot, as are others.
At the current rate of development it's difficult to even imagine how far this technology will go and what robots will be capable of, but suffice to say we're already seeing levels of capability most believed were science fiction just a decade ago.
Point is, arguing about armed drones like the Reaper and Predator is not going to solve anything and it's a distraction from the real ethical debates that need to be happening around weaponised robotics.
They are not widespread like cell phones are widespread. They are not widespread like automobiles are widespread. They are not widespread like television is widespread. They are not widespread like six shooter revolvers are widespread. They are not widespread like clock radios are widespread. They are not widespread like cameras are widespread. They are not widespread like hand grenades are widespread.
Maybe they're widespread like bi-planes at the end of world war I. Maybe they're widespread like torpedos at the beginning of world war II. But that still counts as uncommon technology in my book.
The drones under discussion are not a consumer technology, how can you expect them to be as widespread as consumer items like automobiles or cellphones, unless you're looking at toy RC 'drones' like the Parrot AR Drone?
The proper way to map drone proliferation is to count how many countries have them as part of their security forces and what type are being used. Last I counted over 80 countries possess at least one model of drone in their security forces and another 23 at least have active armed drone programs underway. How is that not widespread?
That's without even discussing the dozens of countries building their own military drones, armed and unarmed. There's a tendency to believe that this technology is contained for the moment within US companies, but that has never been the case.
But drones aren't the real issue, they're still relatively unsophisticated aircraft that, even when armed, are not any more deadly than manned combat aircraft and the array of sophisticated weaponry that most countries have access to.
The real issue is the rapid development of robotics, of which UAVs (aka drones) are a subset, that promises to dramatically change warfare. The first robots equipped with AI software to automatically identify and shoot at targets will probably be ground robots like the Talon or SWORDS, not UAVs flying 20 000 ft above the battlefield. Russia is already experimenting with such autonomous AIs on their Taifun-M robot, as are others.
At the current rate of development it's difficult to even imagine how far this technology will go and what robots will be capable of, but suffice to say we're already seeing levels of capability most believed were science fiction just a decade ago.
Point is, arguing about armed drones like the Reaper and Predator is not going to solve anything and it's a distraction from the real ethical debates that need to be happening around weaponised robotics.
[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7709420