The idea of the "AI bubble" popping is a collective delusion driven by a desire to see AI fail.
API access to AI models is not "subsidized", AI companies make a profit on inference. They are only losing money because they spend a lot on training the next generation of models.
It would make sense to claim the bubble pops if AI companies' valuations were pure speculation, but revenues are increasing exponentially for OpenAI/Anthropic. They are selling a product that people are buying at a price which is profitable on margin.
This is where I've landed as well. One caveat: hard to say if anyone's revenue numbers outside of those two names is reliable. Perhaps anyone who isn't the big four is at risk of bubble trouble.
API access to AI models is not "subsidized", AI companies make a profit on inference. They are only losing money because they spend a lot on training the next generation of models.
It would make sense to claim the bubble pops if AI companies' valuations were pure speculation, but revenues are increasing exponentially for OpenAI/Anthropic. They are selling a product that people are buying at a price which is profitable on margin.