In general, "any conceivable LLM" was the metric based on current energy usage trends within the known data-centers peak loads (likely much higher due to municipal NDA.) A straw-man argument on whether it is asymptotic or not is irrelevant with numbers that large. For example, 75% of a our galaxy energy output... now only needing 40% total output... does not correct a core model design problem.
LLM are not "AI", and unlikely ever will be due to that cost... but Neuromorphic computing is a more interesting area of study. =3
https://www.anthropic.com/research/assistant-axis
The estimated energy consumption versus error rate is likely projected from agent test and hidden-agent coverage.
You are correct, in that such a big number likely includes large errors itself given models change daily. =3