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Most to least confident:

1. Bazel is still not widely used outside of massive monorepos. (because its such a pain to use)

2. Solar power will surpass wind power in the US to become the 4th largest source of electricity. https://eia.languagelatte.com/

3. Starship begins launching real payloads, achieves reusability of the upper stage, and successfully does a ship to ship fuel transfer.

4. Tesla stock has a major correction (>20%) as it becomes increasingly clear that Waymo, Zoox, AVRide, and various Chinese companies are significantly ahead in AV technology. And as it becomes clear that Optimus is a sham.





I was with you until the last.

Chinese will always be irrelevant to the US car market as both political parties will block chinese vehicle sales on (valid) national security grounds.

Uber and Lyft stocks crash as markets realise the game is up - nobody can compete with Tesla who can afford to burn excess spare factory capacity driving cars directly off the line to start picking up passengers. Waymo might have good AI but can't possibly compete with Teslas unit economics.


> 20% is not a major correction. It just recently doubled. Even at price before it doubled wasn't considered undervalued, so anything < 66% down is not a major correction.

What dope are u smoking?

Fsd is fantastic and works everywhere




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