Counterpoint - no it isn't.
The NP arguments are dumb and have nothing to do with thinking. I don't think Einstein was NP complete but could still think.
Winter summer implies sine wave like progress but what we are seeing now is a result of exponential growth in computer hardware such that it is now passing human equivalent levels https://www.bvp.com/assets/uploads/2024/03/price-performance...
LLMs having failings is a blip. Hinton got his nobel prize for work done in the 1980s but we are seeing AI takeoff now 45 years later, almost exactly when predicted by the likes of Moravec/Kurweil because of the hardware progress.
(see the token use graph mentioned by aoeusnth1 - https://openrouter.ai/rankings usage looking exponential too)
Counterpoint - no it isn't.
The NP arguments are dumb and have nothing to do with thinking. I don't think Einstein was NP complete but could still think.
Winter summer implies sine wave like progress but what we are seeing now is a result of exponential growth in computer hardware such that it is now passing human equivalent levels https://www.bvp.com/assets/uploads/2024/03/price-performance...
LLMs having failings is a blip. Hinton got his nobel prize for work done in the 1980s but we are seeing AI takeoff now 45 years later, almost exactly when predicted by the likes of Moravec/Kurweil because of the hardware progress.
(see the token use graph mentioned by aoeusnth1 - https://openrouter.ai/rankings usage looking exponential too)