> If you think I'm being hyperbolic calling out a future of brutal serfdom. Keep in mind we basically have widespread serfdom now; a big chunk of Americans are in debt and living paycheck to paycheck. The only thing keeping it from being official is the lack of debtor's prison. Think about how much worse things will be with 10% inflation, 25% unemployment and the highest income inequality in history. This is fertile ground for a revolution, and historically the elites would have taken a step back to try and make the game seem less rigged as a self-preservation tactic, but this time is different. As far as I can tell, the tech oligarchs don't care because they're banking on their private island fortresses and an army of terminators to keep the populace in line.
This is suggesting an "end of history" situation. After Fukuyama, we know there is no such thing.
I'm not sure if there is a single strong thesis (as this one tries to be) on how this will end economically and geopolitically. This is hard to predict, much less to bet on.
I'm not proposing and end of history, but things can remain in stable equilibrium for longer than you'd expect (just look at sharks!). If we slide into stable dystopia now, my guess is that there will be a black swan at some point that shakes us out of it and continues evolution, but we could still be in for 50 years of suffering.
> but we could still be in for 50 years of suffering.
I mean if you are talking about USA itself falling into dystopic metastability in such a situation, maybe, but even so I think it misses some nuance. I don't see every other country following USA into oblivion, and also I don't see the USA bending the knee to techno-kings and in the process giving up real influence for some bet on total influence.
The only mechanism I see for reaching complete stability (or at least metastability) in that situation is idiocracy / idiotic authoritarianism, i.e. Trump/his minions actually grabbing power for decades and/or complete corruption of USA institutions.
My maximum is that the courts restrain Trump enough that we still have at least the shell of a democracy after he's gone. But he blazed the trail, and in 20 or 30 years someone will walk it better, having done a better job of neutralizing or politicizing or perhaps deligitimizing the courts first. Then it's game over.
This is suggesting an "end of history" situation. After Fukuyama, we know there is no such thing.
I'm not sure if there is a single strong thesis (as this one tries to be) on how this will end economically and geopolitically. This is hard to predict, much less to bet on.