You're arguing a different point than the article, and in some ways even agreeing with it.
The article is not saying OpenAI must fail: it's saying OpenAI is not "The AGI Company of San Francisco". They're in the same bare knuckle brawl as other AI startups, and your bull case is essentially agreeing but saying they'll do well in the fight.
> In fact, the only real difference is the amount of money backing it.
> Otherwise, OpenAI could be literally any foundation model company, [...] we should start evaluating OpenAI as just another AI startup
Any startup would be able to raise with their numbers... they just can't ask for trillions to build god-in-a-box.
It's going to be a slog because we've seen that there are companies that don't even have to put 1/10th their resources into LLMs to compete robustly with their offerings.
OpenRouter doesn't capture 1/100th of open weight usage, but more importantly the fact that Longcat is legitimately robustly competitive to SOTA models from a year ago is the actual signal. It's a sneak peak of what happens if the AGI case doesn't pan out and OpenAI tries to get off the treadmill: within a year a lot of companies catch up.
The article is not saying OpenAI must fail: it's saying OpenAI is not "The AGI Company of San Francisco". They're in the same bare knuckle brawl as other AI startups, and your bull case is essentially agreeing but saying they'll do well in the fight.
> In fact, the only real difference is the amount of money backing it.
> Otherwise, OpenAI could be literally any foundation model company, [...] we should start evaluating OpenAI as just another AI startup
Any startup would be able to raise with their numbers... they just can't ask for trillions to build god-in-a-box.
It's going to be a slog because we've seen that there are companies that don't even have to put 1/10th their resources into LLMs to compete robustly with their offerings.
OpenRouter doesn't capture 1/100th of open weight usage, but more importantly the fact that Longcat is legitimately robustly competitive to SOTA models from a year ago is the actual signal. It's a sneak peak of what happens if the AGI case doesn't pan out and OpenAI tries to get off the treadmill: within a year a lot of companies catch up.