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The goal/theory behind the LLM investment explosion is that we can get to AGI by feeding them all the data. And to be clear, by AGI I don't mean "superhuman singularity", just "intelligent enough to replace most humans" (and, by extension, hoover up all the money we're spending on their salaries today).

But if we've already fed them all the data, and we don't have AGI (which we manifestly don't), then there's no way to get to AGI with LLMs and the tech/VC industry is about to have a massive, massive problem justifying all this investment.



That's only true if model intelligence is the limiting factor. I don't believe it is. Right now the limiting factor for AI impact is mostly the effort required to wire it up to all the systems we want it to automate.




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