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Why doesn't duckshot make short work of these things?


Even bubba's pissin hot 3.5 magnum bird shot is probably not getting above 300 or 400 feet vertical for starters, and then you've either got to deal with hitting it dead on with a tight pattern wad or accepting that the shot is going spread enough to make it unlikely to hit it. So far as I have ever seen the energy in a shot shell wad dissipates much faster than a regular bullet, and I think you're better off trying to hit it with a regular old 556.


Following on to this, I would not be remotely surprised if drones continue to be a threat to see something like a man portable gepard hooked up to an EW system, as given the speed those things move and how hard even hitting regular old Canadian Geese or errant clays under non-combat situations, I don't know how you would economically fight drone swarms short of a mini Phalanx CIWS or something.

Maybe ironically, I wonder if we won't see things like the Bofors 40mm guns continue to be prolific if they get successfully retasked to fighting drones (and they would end up like the M2, fighting long after it was initially conceived).


For the larger drones, yes, Ukraine is seeing success with SPAAGs: https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/20/ukraine-drone-defense...

For the smaller drones it's an even more rapidly evolving, high-tech arms race. AFAIU, over the past year most of the battlefield drones have switched to kilometers-long fiber optic tethers to avoid electronic jamming. I dunno what all the defensive measures are, but one is using other drones to cut the cable. I think they may also be using directed energy weapons, now, though not sure how widespread that is.


Not all, long range attacks can't use that.

Current method from public posts seems to be run on GPS and remote data link until jamming bubble is hit, then transition to visual/thermal/radar recognition of target for terminal approach.

Jamming only covers a small area (yes, some areas will have overlap), or a narrow movable cone. Both systems can be overran by the above method, or by swarms overriding directional electronic attack


EOS (Aust) sent 160 of these to Ukraine to be mounted on M113 carriers and Kozak MRAPs. Could also be put on the back of a Toyota Hilux or other technicals.

They use a Bushmaster 30mm cannon with proximity fuse HE rounds so they don't need to hit the drone dead on.

https://eos-aus.com/defence/counter-drone-systems/slinger/


The US Army has this under development

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSETxYGrxVw


On this particular note, both Ukraine and Russia have developed anti-drone sabot rounds that fire from the respective cartridges their infantry service rifles are chambered for. I do not know their efficacy however.


Drones are most effective as tools of psychological warfare I think. Infantry in a trench can maybe disable a wave or two of drones before becoming overwhelmed, but the drone operator can remain safe and calm in their bunker kilometers away. Most drones don’t make it on target or even inflict lethal injury but their presence or the threat of their presence constantly draws the enemy’s attention away from your units. In Ukraine soldiers seem to worry much more about drones more than small arms or indirect fire. And both sides use this to influence the tactical decision making of their enemies.


The Ukrainians report that about 70% of their kills are now by drones. Current Ukrainian drone production rate was 1.7 million last year. Target for this year is above 4 million.[1] Russian comment: “Their reconnaissance drones are in the sky 24/7, and any movement on our part is immediately met with a massive wave of [first-person-view] drones.”

Tactics when you have large numbers of expendable drones are totally different from the old days of snooping around with a few drones.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/03/12/45-million-...


There is this interesting arms race here with drones and unit size, yes?

If you can get any large group together, then a drone will come for it. So, there is a balance between the size of a group and the cost of the drone that the enemy is will to spend (+ estimated failure rate).

As drones get cheaper and more efficient at killing that number of soldiers worth killing approaches 1. Meaning that group and unit cohesion at the 'front' goes to 0. The 'long term' dynamics are stunning.

I cannot imagine the psychological horror of being sent with little training (because why bother for either side) into the theater all alone without any officer supervision or buddies. You'd have a radio that gets jammed, maybe, some bivouac supplies, bad food and water, a gun of some sort hopefully, and time, terrible time. The veterans, what little there are, would tell you that if you hear a drone, you're dead already. You'd have nothing but superstition to go on. You'd just sit there in the heat or cold, waiting on a radio signal, knowing that your side will shoot you too if you 'missed' the call to attack. And you'd wait and wait. If your buddy came over, or a lieutenant, to check in on you then you're at higher risk of being droned. You'd have only your frightened thoughts to keep company and solace with.

Morale? what morale? That is carnal house. There is no 'army' in the field, you command nothing but the slaughter of young boys to an indifferent AI god.

To some degree, having AI drones fighting off against AI drones can't come fast enough.


Drones are ammo now, not assets. The old USMC manual stresses retrieving the expensive US drone, cleaning it, and putting it back in its protective case. Ukraine expects to produce 4 million drones this year, and most of them will be expended.

Everybody in that war is getting good at building trenches with top cover for drone protection.[1] Camo netting up top can help. But the dug-in troops can't accomplish much beyond survival. This war is static but deadly.

[1] https://taskandpurpose.com/news/navy-marines-trenches-drones...


There are entire subreddits dedicated to actual footage of drone effectiveness on the front lines... It's definitely not just psychological warfare. In some cases, the fiber optic lines crisscross fields so densely it looks like spider webs.

NSFW - https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/


Or subreddit DroneCombat for drone specific posts, very NSFW too. And then UkraineWarVideoReport has a bit wider range or reports and links, so unlike those other two it's not combat footage only.


[flagged]


Is there a pro-Russian one? Any reporting or combat footage, at least what's been posted on Reddit, has been pro-Ukranian, and the Ukranian losses are underreported.

It's not warmongering though; Ukraine never asked for it, it's a war of aggression from the Russian side. I also don't think the soldiers depicted asked for any of that, but I doubt they were offered much of a choice in the matter.


https://simplicius76.substack.com/ is in the top 10 subscribed substacks. He posts videos supporting points he makes, and you can find drones attacks. His analysis and predictions are more accurate than pro-Ukrainian pundits, and draws on information from within Ukraine (speeches at the Rada, Ukrainian commander interviews, posts) and Russia.


> pro Ukrainian warmongering people

As opposed to pro Russian peaceful people? What the fuck do I even read?


I would think drones carrying cluster bombs would be effective. More targeted in their destruction. No need to scatter bomblets over a quarter of a mile, just 10 or so around a tank.


If you have seen videos from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, especially over time, you can see the evolution of tactics.

For example with tanks, they...

- strap artillery shell to the drone and fly it into the tank

- drop a standard grenade into the hatch after the crew has fled

They don't need to drop munitions like cluster, they strap several on and drop them one at a time. They have become quite skilled and accurate, even from 100+ meters up in wind

There are places in Ukraine where it looks like giant spiders live there, due to all the fiber optic cables from drones left on the battle fields


The fact that we have not yet seen a high-profile political assassination by drone, particularly from the "death from above" method, absolutely _boggles_ my mind, and I don't think we get out of this decade without that occurring, and I'm not particularly sure what sort of counter-measure you could reasonably put in place to stop that. The 2030s are going to be messy.


It's a matter of time; that said, all high profile open air whatsits have anti-drone detection and countermeasures in place. The Ukranian invasion is one of attrition, where both sides try to limit expenses; this isn't the case for e.g. the US president's protection, where they can afford to deploy millions in countermeasures.


Less than 5 years is my guess, somewhere in the world.


> all the fiber optic cables from drones left on the battle fields

Are they tethered? I thought these were all radio controlled


Tethered to avoid jamming

Here's an post with a few pictures of the tangled mess left behind

https://bou.org.uk/blog-moreland-fibreoptic-drones/


Seen this a few times and am surprised it's actually a viable solution. Used to be heavily into fpv a long time ago and remember MIT(?) had autonomous CV software that could easily navigate through thick forests that was open sourced, I think the only real use of onboard GPS there was "go from point A to B"

This was perhaps a decade ago mind you, people rocking DIY setups had fairly limited computing compared to what you can buy today. The PID needed for quads/hex/octos to stay aloft has trivial compute requirements.


Won't the fibres leading up to the operator and revealing their location not a threat?


you need to walk through the battlefield to trace it. you know, the one the drone just flew over.

they're pretty thin, and it's not hard for the operators to displace. even using other drones and AI to track refraction index of the fiber it's still a tall order. you'd probably have better luck shooting artillery at any large building or hedgerow nearby...


Yup, apparently some of these carry 50 kilometers of fiber optic cable. Max range limits their payload capacity though, but then, they can do reconnaisance and target painting with one, then send an automated jamming-resistant swarm to do damage.


They switched to fiber optic tethers to avoid being jammed.


as far as i know, they don't strap artillery shells to drones, they too heavy. they strap shaped charges.


100s of videos of drones with arty shells can be seen on https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/

They have strapped so many things to drones, you'd think they've tried about everything, then some new video comes out

Drones have evolved rapidly and come in all shapes and sizes now. The DJI Maverick image in people's head is only one modality, though by far the most common form factor


Those aren't artillery shells though, the explosive part of those weighs seven kilos, which is too much for the mass produced drones they use. As others mentioned, they use RPGs (3 kgs), mortar shells (~1.5 kgs), grenades (<1 kg), sometimes land mines, and specialized drone explosives for suicide drones.

I do like seeing the production facilities of these drones, how they simplified the designs but also made design decisions to deal with the scale, they're built so they can be stacked easily. Mind you, this is probably the case with these drone show drones too.


The bigger drones are sometimes used for dropping TM-62 anti-tank mines, which are about ten kilograms. An artillery shell would probably still be a poor choice though, considering the forces a shell is built to withstand. Adds a lot of extra weight.


Those must be HEAT rounds. An AP round would not have the velocity to do anything, anti-personnel would not penetrate tanks armor but would kill crew if dismounted or a hatch is left open


Old rpg rounds are cheap and top-down doesn't require much pen, making older stock more effective. Newish stock are tandem and would be even worse to try and counter from above (PG-7VR).


The typical setup I’ve seen for FPV drones is RPG warheads or small mortar shells for drops. I’d love to see one drop 152/155mm shells though.


In some photos I have seen the charge looks like and RPG https://share.google/LUIxGYEC07ZDVMVgT


Problem is that munitions carried by drones are much weaker than artillery shells - more like grenades. On this page is a turtle tank that took 60 drone attacks to disable. https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/western-analysts-find-li...

Russians are able to retrieve 80% of disabled armored vehicles to repair them.

A tank does not even notice cluster bombs - this type of bomb is effective against infantry and civilians.


10 or so wouldn't work on a tank. you need a shaped charge or EFP.

that might be a solution for massed infantry, but then again you can just drop a single mortar round, e.g. the Ukrainian "foot crusher"


Some more information about the psychological impact of drone warfare [0]

Massive stress factor when you are in the field leading to hyper vigilance when on leave (or at home) with lots of trigger events.

[0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c23gjk7dlvlo.amp


drones ain't psyops, mate. they're killing a ton of people in combat situations, and can do things like fly into a bunker or tunnel and get the inhabitants


Because they're incredibly fast, exceeding 40 meters per second. You can't fire a shotgun at 80 meters. A typical shotgun's effective range is only 40 meters, and once it's within range, you only have one second to fire.

Furthermore, drones are generally difficult to detect at 400 meters unless you're using a synthetic detection system. By the time you spot them, it's too late.


My experience is only with consumer drones, but you could fly over a target area and release an explosive before anyone heard that it was there, especially in a noisy environment. Above 100m, unless you're at high speed/power, most people won't notice a drone at all. It's often a change in speed/direction that gives them away, otherwise it will be past you before you first notice the sound.


plus, speaking from military experience, people don't look up.

camp out at the top of a 5 story building and don't move or shoot and no one will even gaze at you. 300m straight up? might as well be in orbit.


FPV drones can hit 80mph+ / 128kmph+ , other drones can fly much higher than a shotgun can reach.

Also, swarms.


Large scale swarms will probably never be a major issue for infantry. You have a finite number of drones, even at extremely high rates of production, spread across all things you want to target. Sending a swarm at individual infantry, or even platoons is just wasteful. At scale that's thousands of drones, per day, that you could have instead sent towards more valuable targets.

This, btw, is also why claims that some side is targeting civilians in otherwise 'productive' warfare (e.g. actually achieving things instead of bombing for the sake of fear/terrorism/headlines/photo ops) is usually just lying propaganda. Civilians are a worse than 0 value target meaning you completely wasted your munitions.


This is not true.

The amount of money spent on training high level US infantry goes into the hundreds of thousands, and millions upon millions for Special Forces, Ranger/Ranger Recon/Tier 1 units/CIA SAC/SOG, etc.

A drone that can carry a payload can be built for under $200 USD. A swarm could be as few as say 10. Let's say 50, just for you example. 50x$200=$10,000.

If you take out an SF Team for example, that's 12 people. Let's say they were very new and they were only $800,000 into training so far in their career. 12x$800,000= $9.6mil USD.

Let's revise that calculation, with a 6 man infantry fire team young troops, $100,000 into training, each. $600,000/$10,000 = 60x more economically efficient even if all drones were lost in the operation, as long as the target was killed. You could still have 59 more tries with 50 drones per swarm to hit cost parity.

Oh yeah and some of those drones have thermals and high quality glass optics now, so they can see you and your squad as white dots moving across the landscape from miles and miles away.

People really don't understand the impact drones are having on the battlefield. It's nuts.

Edit:

I think this level of drone warfare will end up having a larger impact on warfare than both gunpowder and later the machine gun, but probably not as big as WWII large scale air campaigns.


As I understand it, currently all drones require a human operator who can only operate one at a time. And except for some special operations behind enemy lines, you must be fairly close to the target, as within a few km. The fiber optic ones, even closer

So your 50 drone swarm is going to need 50 operators, fairly close to the front. Who are also vulnerable to enemy counter drones and glide bombs - the latter is a real problem for Ukraine

I haven’t seen any evidence of a “swarm” on combat footage from Ukraine war, I have seen a few drones hitting a single target, especially armored vehicles in fairly quick succession, like a few seconds, It looked like independent operators all picking the obvious high value target, not some intentional “swarm”

Tech may change this in the future but we’re not there quite yet


You're very out of date.

First, you don't need AI operators, you just need a swarm. The operators are reusable!

>Ukraine reported the largest single-day drone attack by Russia on July 9, 2025, where Russia targeted Ukraine with a record 728 drones. This surpasses earlier attacks, including one on May 26, 2025, when Russia launched 355 drones.

With that many pilots, that is a swarm.

Next, analysis of last months AI driven attack was performed by many drones with no human terminal guidance - they were jammed and expected to be!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/25/ukraine-russia...

>“Our models are being trained to recognise targets to understand target prioritisation,” he says. “We do not have full autonomy yet. We use the human factor where we need to, but we are developing different scenarios for taking autonomy further.

> “We are also testing some autonomous drones, which we have not announced and are probably not planning to announce, but they have a high degree of autonomy, and they can potentially combine themselves into swarms. We are still facing technical problems and hurdles, but we already see a path forward on this.”

One Final Note - Most of the info you ever hear about military tech is only the things people are allowed to discuss publicly. The battlefield is also a hell of a lab, and 3d printers and open source flight software (and open source AI models) are amazing.


Those 725 drones were spread across a fairly big geographic area, and didn’t hit all at once. Also they operate more like cruise missiles, not the FPV drones it seemed like the article was referring too

“Swarm” to me means more than just number. It’s number, concentration, and tactics, like a swarm of bees… the problem is they are concentrated and hitting from many directions, While individually they are not that bad, when they use this tactic it is very effective, Which is how they can drive 500 pound bears away from their hive.

Otherwise “swarms” have been a thing for along time. Would you call an 19th century infantry regiment (let’s say about 600-1000 soldiers) a “swarm”. Or how about those formations of B17/B24s/Lancasteres in WW2 which would attack in similar numbers (hundreds). I would say no, partly because they didn’t use a swarming tactic


Read the Ukranian part I quoted.

Argue about the definition of swarm (the distance between units and level of coordination) all you want, but ultimately it's irrelevant given the addition information.

Massive coordination is going into attacks across hundreds or thousands of Km. Multiple layers of drones, electronic warfare, recon, airspace deconfliction, etc. Highly orchestrated. Large numbers that are overwhelming systems designed to defeat them, like a swarm of locust.

Note: These aren't the Warthunder forums.


Note that the one drone is not the other; when they talk about Russian mass drone attacks, they will refer to Shahed etc drones, which are autonomous, not unlike the WW2 V1 "drones".

But yeah, drone swarms with fewer operators will be, probably already is a thing. But what I've seen so far, they're just not very useful; drones look to be generally used on individual targets, if there's a bigger or more targets, they'll use something bigger like a HIMARS, glide bomb, or if it's closer by, an artillery strike.


Drone swarms primary purpose is to overwhelm defenses.

Many argue drone swarms require some level of orchestration and control, others say a certain level of automation is required.

I'm aware of the differences in many drone classifications.

HIMARS was made largely impotent by GPS jamming. Glide bombs have limited range (barring exceptions for stuff like JASSM-ER but that is massive increase in cost) and detection and fire by counter battery. Artillery strike requires fairly close proximity but a bit more of rocket assisted.

Spent time doing military things with a lot of ordinance and a lot of drones.


iPhones can run some AI models on device already. Expect this to change, rapidly.


Depending on what you're looking for, a Raspberry Pi has enough processing power to do object / target detection and the like already.

AI as we know it today is overkill for this application. Image detection and signal processing is enough for most.


Ukraine is having pretty substantial manpower problems in its armed forces. If fully autonomous drones against mobile targets had been figured out, they would been deployed and there would be no need for the more expensive / shorter range fiber optic drones and you wouldn't hear about the manpower issue as much


They haven't been figured out, yet.

They are absolutely on the way.


And full self driving is just a year or two away for the past 15 years


If we were in a war with widespread conscription that needed self-driving vehicles, I'd bet we'd a) see a lot more investment in them and b) a lot less concern about edge cases.


I agree with you on almost everything. Where we differ is on the nature of money. I think the recent wars emphasize that the real bottleneck in war is no longer $$$, but the things those dollars represent. So for instance a million $1000 drones is, on paper, only a billion dollars. The bottleneck isn't the cost, but the production. And you can't just spin up production making millions per year, because you also need the raw resources - and you end up with this entire complex supply chain, all on top of finite raw materials, and then the logistics to organize everything. And in the case of a war scenario, this all needs to be organized in a disruption proof system. It's extremely complex and difficult, even if you have an infinite money machine.

And I think you would actually agree with this by taking a simple thought experiment. Imagine we have 1 soldier with a million dollars of training. And we give an opposing force the choice of eliminating that soldier, or eliminating 1,000 $1000 drones. Everybody is going to pick the drones, and it won't be even remotely close. In fact drop it down by an order of magnitude, 100 drones, and it's still not even close - even though the on paper value of that soldier is an order of magnitude higher. 10 drones is probably where it starts to get close, though I think it'd still lean heavily towards the drones.

---

I would add that when a war becomes a late stage war of attrition, the value of infantry goes up. I am speaking in more general terms in a war where manpower is nowhere near a critical issue. In any case by the time manpower does become a critical issue, a war is usually already lost, even if it might be able to drag on for many months yet.


30% unit casualties causes the unit to be Combat Ineffective in the infantry role.

(Number of infantry x .3) = $DesiredCasualties

Let's say it takes 10 drones to kill a soldier, and each drone is $250/ea. That's $2,500, or the $KillCost

$DesiredCasualties x $KillCost = Dollar value needed to move an infantry unit into combat ineffectiveness

Looks like around 620,000 troops deployed by Russia so far.

620k x .3 = 186,000

186000 x $2500 = $465 million, bottom line price, in a crazy world where the starts align in many ways that aren't realistic, gives you a huge destruction in combat capability for less than $500mil.

For those following along, this is extremely overly simplified, but I hope it conveys both the huge military advantages drones provide as well as the political (less dead bodies to deal with, less broken soldiers sent home for treatment and decades of care) and economic advantages lethal drones in combat can provide.


And the enemy is using the exact same thing against you. Yet infantry will remain critical for claiming territory, clearing areas and more. As drones advance, war will probably become even bloodier. And drone operators that survive are already coming home completely broken men suffering from extreme PTSD.

Then factor on top of this logistics. You need to transport men, keep them fed, equipped, and more. You need to move a massive amount of stuff constantly in war, yet drones are going to be buzzing everywhere. So I think we're seeing the future of war now - slow, grueling, bloody wars of attrition.

And war where high prices tags are replaced by high costs in stuff, making it more apparent than ever that economies maximized through financial games and services are paper tigers when facing economies based on the production of tangible things.


I don't think they are, actually (using the same TTPs), nor would it make sense to.

Ukrainian drone doctrine is very different than Russian, and not just on paper, but how it is playing out.

This is for two main reasons: proximity to logistics for the defenders vs attackers, and existing military structures including vehicles and troop organizational structures (MTOE) that drone systems support or are supported by.

So I don't agree with your assessment there. It doesn't seem to match what's happening in the field with the type of drones used and the percentage of the classification of each type of drone system and purpose. These are quite different.

I also don't think it will be more bloody, but less over time. Much of the fight is in the electronic warfare arena and in air dominance across the vertical airspace. A colleague agrees:

https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/the-meaning-of-drone-enabl...

Infantry are expensive to train correctly, to outfit, and supply. I think the total number of frontline combat troops will continue to go down as a fraction of overall troops, while increasing supporting positions for drones, communications, electronic warfare, and general battlefield logistics.

Agree with your last paragraph 100% !


That article reads like typical NATO stuff which sounds great in practice but makes assumptions that don't exist, and are unobtainable (like air superiority), if you're fighting an enemy more sophisticated than guys running around in sandals with AKs. Here [1] is a report from somebody who worked with drones in Ukraine, and why he's exceptionally disillusioned with them.

I half wonder if what I linked to wasn't an indirect response to what you posted, as it was published only 3 days later, and is essentially that article's equal but opposite.

[1] - https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fought-in-ukraine-and-he...


Soldiers adapt - deploying in groups of 3-4, moving along tree lines, and hiding in buildings/trenches. One of Patrick Lancaster's (an American journalist covering the war from the Donbas) videos has him hiding with a group of soldiers while a drone is overhead - the twigs and branches of the bushes and trees makes it impossible for a drone traveling at a moderate speed to see them, and would entangle the drone if it did attack.


Drones are being operated in layers based on range and capability. This applies to both long range / heavy payload drones and small / fast fpvs.

Long range, heavy payload, ISR drones with excellent optics and thermals are helping to spot targets from very far away that small groups of fpv operators can search and target.

Smaller drones must be somewhat closer, so this can't happen too far away from where are currently.

Depending on the terrain and what the enemy is using to adapt (like fiber optic tether for drones like a TOE missile, or like AI targeting and terminal guidance to counter controls + GPS jamming), fpv drones can be a liability (tree cover, rubble) or have a big impact.

What a lot of units are doing for tree cover is what is called a VT fuse for mortars or artillery. These can be configured to burst at tree height. Artillery/indirect often have coverage over top of drone units to cover their advance with smoke if need be, and much further range than FPV drone operations do without some sort of comms relay (could be another airborne drone relaying).

Yeah. Don't group up though. The first round of indirect fire is normally the most deadly.


It seems like you are making the point that there are large ranges of drones, and other weapons are required when drones are not effective, which I agree with. Drones aren't as cost effective as your earlier example of 12 soldiers being killed by a few drones. I can't find the interview, but a Ukranian drone operator said on average 15-20 FPVs were needed to wound/kill a soldier (80% are jammed). Just as it takes 1000 bullets to kill a soldier, it takes lots of drones (on average) to kill a soldier, making the cost-effectiveness worse.


That's not what I'm saying.

I'm saying they're not acting alone, and alluding to battlefield conditions changing and combatants adapting as they have done since warfare started.

They are using Combined Arms doctrine to support their drones now. Instead of drones supporting everything else, everything else is in support of drones and drone dominance.

The supply chain and cost is a big part of it.

As both sides continue to develop new and better AI targeting systems, RF jamming will cease to be effective and they'll have to move to laser jamming of the optical systems. As that is no longer effective, swarm tactics counter the laser tactics. Currently counter-swarm attack methods for drone-swarms are being investigated, because nobody knows of a cost effective way to stop this. Even the drone supply chain is very easy to do much of very near the front lines. Carbon fiber and some heavy duty airframes are harder. It's SO CHEAP compared to any comparable weapon.


This is nonsense. Drones get all the attention because of the novelty and that they obviously have become very important, but you're being beyond hyperbolic. Artillery is still the king of war and responsible for something like 80% of all battlefield casualties. This has become even more true now with drones having eyes in the sky everywhere enabling artillery to become even more devastating.


I dropped something I think you should read from a former coworker:

https://warontherocks.com/2025/06/the-meaning-of-drone-enabl...


Somehow my autocorrect changed TOW missile to TOE missile.

Oops!


The drone cost in hundreds of dollars , low hundreds , even optic one cost $300-400 at manufacturing.

Train a soldier is hundreds of thousands.

Manufacturing , both Ukraine and Russia , generally speaking technological midgets, producing as of today millions a year. Ukraines projected output is around 4 millions in 2025

China can easily produce tens of millions. Even if 1 out 4 hit your target , that’s any army of any size in the world obliterated without new recruits.


Reports (caveat: biased, pro-ukranian reports) are though that Russian soldiers barely get any training, I doubt they are worth that much. Even at the start of the war, there were stories that they had to buy their own shoes.

At this point it's not even so much about scale, but about intelligence - finding viable or valuable targets. A million FPV drones won't do much good if your enemy is >100 kilometers away. The Ukranian front line is over 1000 kilometers long, but viable targets are easily a hundred kilometers from that either side. And that's just around the front lines, picking off individual soldiers or hardware won't stop this war, not when thousands are recruited and trained every month. Which is why Ukraine has done some deep strikes, taking out trains, infrastructure, refineries, air bases, etc. If they can take out the Shahed drone production facility too, that'd be a huge blow. But again, it wouldn't stop this war, just slow down attacks on civilians.


training the soldier is only part of it.

you need at least ~16 years of food, water, and teaching to get something useful. ideally 18, sometimes as low as 12. and you can't refurbish ones that are missing parts or otherwise defective.

the 20k to run them through Basic Training is a pittance.


Basic/AIT in the US Army is closer to 50k-85k but can be a little higher for certain specialties.


Some lives are worth more $$$ than others... CASEVAC for a single US soldier will tie up multiple individuals + follow up costs (full logistics + medical + compensation + benefits etc) = orders of magnitude more than few 1000 drones. Estimates for fully burden costs of severely wounded is 2-5m+ for lifetime.


>Civilians are a worse than 0 value target meaning you completely wasted your munitions.

It's not, it forces your enemy to waste valuable resources on defending those civilian targets.


> assumes you care about the civilians


Also, drones are currently being flown by soldiers in fpv goggles so swarm is not very practical. It will change once we have swarm software and there is a need for it.


Or just extend the logic to materiel instead of personnel, like Ukraine did with the airbase attacks earlier this year: for the price of a few dozen < $1k drones, you can eliminate $50M-$150M+ aircraft? The asymmetry is insane.

There's also nothing that practically stops those same tactics from being aimed at other soft infrastructure targets: electrical substations, telco facilities, water treatment facilities... the nightmare scenario is taking down transmission lines and switching stations outside, say, a large nuclear power plant during a heat wave. The nuke itself is hardened, obviously, but who cares if it can't transmit the power it's generating to the people that need it?


It also took 18 months to insert the people, set up the shell company, smuggle materials, manufacture, etc. It also had the advantage of surprise - the first such attack at such a distance from the front line. Is it unlikely such an attack will be replicated, just as a box-cutter hijack of 747s attack against buildings will not succeed again.


>This, btw, is also why claims that some side is targeting civilians in otherwise 'productive' warfare (e.g. actually achieving things instead of bombing for the sake of fear/terrorism/headlines/photo ops) is usually just lying propaganda. Civilians are a worse than 0 value target meaning you completely wasted your munitions.

The issue in your logic is assuming Ruzzia/Kremlin uses same natural logic as the rest of the world, I talked with many Zed patriots, that country uses a non natural logic, Zed Logic. Add on top of the unatural logic, the brainwashing and the fact that most of thye soldiers are murderers and rapists from prisons and you get a lot of civilians killed or abused by this asshols for fun or other reasons that make no sense in a natural logic.

An example of Zed logic

When Ruzzia attacks some civilian infrastructure in Ukraine (like grain storage) then Zeds claim it is legal, but when Ukraine strikes a military ship Zeds claim this is illegal, it is terrorism because... ... the ship was outside the SMO (special military operation) that Putin decided to be.

I am not joking, the Zeds are full of this bullshit logic, something ie legal/correct is always dependent of who makes the crime, where the crime is happening, who is the victim.

Second best Zed logic shit I heard is "USSR was the best democracy ever, in the entire human history"


>This, btw, is also why claims that some side is targeting civilians in otherwise 'productive' warfare (e.g. actually achieving things instead of bombing for the sake of fear/terrorism/headlines/photo ops) is usually just lying propaganda. Civilians are a worse than 0 value target meaning you completely wasted your munitions.

Dude, Russians literally post this stuff on their own social media accounts. The "munitions" in question are no more expensive than a basic frag grenade.

And what part of the Russian war effort has led you to the conclusion that they value productivity over terrorism and photo ops? The incentive structures of the Russian military are just oceans apart from anything a westerner would consider a proper functional military.

I have some clips for you. Does this look like the operations of a productive military to you? You have no clue, absolutely none at all. They do this shit kind of to their own soldiers, and you think they're above trying to terrorize Ukrainians into compliance?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/28/europe/russia-deserters-ukrai...

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1937075719428780250

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1935714762664693993

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1932061484030267809

Note: that last clip is very, very NSFL. For reference, naked and bound deserters were thrown into a dirt pit and fired upon with rifles (not killed, at least not in the video, but threatened essentially)

I can understand how a westerner who has never seen, even by proxy, the dregs of the Russian internet could conceive of just how fucked up Russian military culture is. But, like, none of this stuff is hidden. The brutality of what happens to people who disobey them is genuinely part of the image they want to portray to the world (and to themselves). And in this way they feel the need to make an example of the Ukrainians - who by the way Russian state media isn't shy about portraying as basically subhumans.

And there is far, far worse shit than this that never makes it out of Russian-language telegram channels.


Man. You sound diluted. Go see one month of Gaza and see how a real civilian targeted war would look like. If Russia would want to see terror they could create more civilian casualties in one evening than the entire war. In Ukraine civilians are not the target. In Gaza they are. Sponsored by the west.


Or, they could just stretch out civilian attacks over time to keep up the pressure.

This puts pressure on Ukrainian leadership and citizens while minimizing outcry from global powers.


The X.com links don't work. The CNN article was on a video showing how Russians treat a deserter. Ukraine has 400,000 deserters, and forces men on the street into vans for conscription. https://www.ukrainemonitor.com/article/837248236 https://www.bitchute.com/video/4GlBx4Dgihge

The Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine are volunteers, well paid (five times average salaries). https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/b0002tho

The people on the ground know how the war is going - there are no more Ukrainians volunteering to fight. Winning attracts, and Russia doesn't need conscription. Amazingly, Ukraine is now recruiting 60+ year old men to fight. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-allowing-over...


I don't understand why this is Amazing, Russia has 4x the population of Ukraine and they've been conscripted since the beginning.

What is amazing is that we've been at this point for years and Russia has only made teeny tiny amounts of progress.

Winter Bear? Paper tiger.

They never would have stood a chance directly against the US in a peer conflict.


Like most, you're confusing conscription with mobilization, something the Western media conveniently repeatedly plays into.

Russia, and many other countries - like everywhere in Scandinavia, has compulsory military enlistment or conscription. But these people generally are not eligible to be sent abroad to participate in conflicts. Instead it's used for training. After that training they are then required to sign up for the equivalent of the US Selective Service where, after after some years (2 in Russia), they may be called up, or mobilized, for participation in any conflict. Russia carried out one very small scale mobilization very early on in the war. It led to hundreds of thousands of Russians leaving the country and was generally exceptionally unpopular. Since then their entire army has been 100% volunteer forces.

By contrast Ukraine immediately, after the war began, made it illegal for men of "fighting age" (18-60) to leave the country and declared a general mobilization such that any man of "fighting age" can be immediately mobilized and sent to the front. This had led to them at times literally dragging people off the streets, beating them into submission when necessary (with more than a few 'deaths in training'), giving then some performative training, and then sending them to the front. And the like the GP mentioned, they recently passed a law to allow even 60+ year olds to enlist, limiting potential medical exemptions, and more. In other words - they are simply running out of people.

So Russia has been essentially fighting a war of attrition against an endless hoard of people armed with hundreds of billions of dollars in the Western gear, directed by Western instructors, using Western intelligence, and winning. It's going to be difficult for any developed nation, including the US, to ever fight a real war like this - because people aren't going to tolerate general mobilization, let alone people coming back in body bags by the hundreds of thousands, for the sake of geopolitics half way around the world. Even Russia has managed to do so only by offering extremely high wages for their soldiers, but it's unclear what this will entail once the war winds down. Hopefully they have not found themselves in the US trap where they suddenly essentially have to always be at war to keep their economy chugging along.


Pssst - Your 100% volunteer claim is wrong.

https://us.dk/media/vsxfb4vt/factfindingmission_russia-recru...

>The Chechens most at risk of being coercively recruited are critcs of the authorites, family members of vocal critcs, drug and alcohol users as well as members of the LGBT community. The Chechen authorites have used coercive recruitment to get rid of what they call the undesirables. In general, any deviaton from the norms and rules of Kadyrov’s leadership could be used to coercively recruit Chechens. In this regard, the Chechen authorites use forced recruitment as a form of punishment in Chechnya. Although certain groups can be identfied as being more at risk than others, there is also a high degree of unpredictability and arbitrariness in the actons of Chechen authorites in regards to coercive recruitment.

And the ones who tried to hide: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/05/26/austria-deports-ch...


Chechnya has its own laws on just about everything. It's ruled by Islamic Law such that homosexuality, alcohol consumption, and even pork consumption are illegal there. They also have their own laws and culture with regards to war and were even completely excluded from the partial mobilization and allowed to do their own thing, as usual. It's a negligible part of Russia (about 1% by population) and not representative of Russian law or norms.


Drone attacks in many ways. Some use suicide method that just ramming themself into you. Some just drop explosive from high above.


Even Olympic trap shooters miss their targets sometimes, and they fly ballistic trajectories after they call "pull". Expecting a soldier with 2 months training (best case) to hit an unpredictably flying drone that appeared out of nowhere with no warning as he's trying to take cover from mortar shrapnel is quite optimistic.


They do. There's a lot of videos of them being taken out with birdshot. I also saw one video about modding underbarrel grenade launchers to fire a shotgun cartridge.


A lot of US under barrel launchers have "factory" buckshot rounds.

M79/M203/M320/etc

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M576_40_mm_grenade

AK would be a different story, but Ukraine has a lot of 3d printers and those shells are one time use and not hard to make.


Those got lucky, lucky in that they detected them in the first place and that they were able to land a shot.


yeah the window for a lot of those FPV drones is small. I'd still rather have the shotgun, but luck is a factor.

also doesn't help for the ones that are 300m straight up dropping bombs -- no buckshot will work that high up. maybe 50m at best, if you're very, very lucky with dispersion.


A lot of these fpv drones are capable of 30mph. That’s not a lot of time to spot em and react.


Some of them can go 90-120mph (off the shelf). Custom FPV drones can go even faster - some fancy ones 330+ kph (200+ mph)


Back in 2014/2015 I was racing FPV drones. My most insane one could accelerate from stationary (on the ground) to doing 160kmh (100mph) straight up, in about 2 seconds. It wasn't much faster horizontally, but it'd top out at over 180kmh.


also.. detonating an explosive drone at only a few meters away is still likely to take you out...


Especially given they have anti-personnel shrapnel.


This is a quality discussion about this question:

https://www.reddit.com/r/WarCollege/comments/1b0u0k0/how_eff...


It probably does. But you've seen how fast these drones are right? It's the speed of aliens in the alien movie or a velociraptor from Jurassic park and much more maneuverable, smaller and can come at you from all dimensions.

Now imagine a swarm coming at you, each with explosives.


Or even smaller drones with a single shot bullet, autonomous with enough intelligence to seek and target faces for their shot.

Covered in Kill Decision by Daniel Suarez


These exist and have been used by Israel in Gaza. At least for now a remote operator has to give the OK to shoot, but the drone does the targeting itself. It's very Terminator-esque, a quadcopter with an automatic rifle that can autonomously navigate streets, loiter, and identify and aim at human targets.




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