The product I oversee at my job is something that can only be built by people who are intimately aware of the process and have a strong understanding of the underlying engineering.
We could hand the full project file to a competitor and they almost certainly would not be able to build functional units. The failure points are fractal, so you need a strong intuition about what part you are installing, what qualities an ideal part has, what qualities the one in your hand has, how you might install it differently because of those qualities, and/or how you might change a later process to accommodate it. Or if the part should just be junked. The process is fraught with seemingly good intuitions that will ultimately lead you to failure as well.
These units also cannot be reworked, reused, or repaired, so any mistake before finalizing the build junks the entire thing.
For extremely low-entropy products, mother nature is incredibly unforgiving.
This is a bigger issue than most people appreciate, and a huge problem for the USA.
There is a specialised trade known as tool and die maker, or just die maker (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tool_and_die_maker) that is fundamental to a country’s ability to create industrial capacity. So far, no automation tool has been able to replace their expertise.
Without die makers, you can’t build tools that make things, you can’t build factories, and mass production in general is dependent on their skillset.
Right now, the USA only has 50k die makers, and the average age of a die maker, including apprentices, is 54. The average age of a master die maker is 73, and the average age of a journeyman is 62. A master die maker can teach about 5 apprentices to the journey man level in a work environment, after 2+ years of basic engineering school, in about 5-7 years. A journeyman may generally considered a master after 10-20 years of experience, depending on the nature of their experience.
We don’t have enough die makers to rebuild the industrial capacity of the USA, and we can’t teach the amount we need in less than 5-7decades without some kind of major change in the process of doing so. And since more than half of the master die makers are months from retirement or death, we are in an extremely precarious position as a viable industrial power.
This is why it is extremely difficult to build anything physical in the USA using only USA sourced parts and materials. It’s almost impossible to even get a decent variety of screws and fasteners made here in the USA, and we can’t easy build the machines to make screws because of the critical shortage of master die makers.
If we are to maintain the ability to build and maintain our machines, weapons, and critical infrastructure without being completely dependent on imported tools, supplies, and knowledge, we will have to reinvent the industrial process using automation or something similar to compensate for our foolish exportation and devaluation of strategic skills and capabilities.
If the average age is 73 that's the issue right there. People are refusing to retire at 62 and make room for juniors. Then when they finally do retire (73 average seems like "dies in office" levels) there are 2 decades of missing juniors who haven't been trained in the pipeline.
This is the shortcoming with most technical fields. No one is incentivized to see the big picture of the training pipeline that exists well outside the scope of their own company. No one likes juniors but that is their future.
The actual killer is the pay and working conditions, and the problem is fairly intractable.
If you are smart enough to be a good tool maker, you are likely smart enough to be a good 6-figure keyboard-all-day worker. Losing a finger (or three) and breathing VOCs all day for half the pay is not very enticing.
These industries aren't glamourous for investors either. The business proposition sucks, the cost and liabilities are intense, and the margins would need to be negative to be truly competitive.
And worse than anything, the stuff that comes from China is not only 1/10th the cost, it's also now better quality.
At this point, even if die makers started making 300k a year, there isn’t enough master die makers left in the USA to bootstrap the capacity in less than 5 decades. The only practical solution at this point is to max out apprenticeship and somehow incentivise the industry so that we could flood other countries with apprentices as well. Then, we might be able to start getting things balanced in as little as 2 decades.
Otherwise, completely homegrown manufacturing is essentially dead in the water.
If we want to regrow US domestic manufacturing, we need to throw about 100B at scholarships and incentives, or figure out how to capture remaining diemaker empirical knowledge into ML / robotics.
Or maybe we could spend 10B on immigration incentives for qualified Diemakers? Idk about the global state of affairs and how that would work. At any rate we need at least 100-300k new diemakers if we really want to rebuild 100 percent domestic capabilities overnight. And then we need a career path for them 20 years farther down the road.
It was really, really foolish to allow strategic industrial capability to wither on the vine.
Yes. Realistically speaking the value that a diemaker brings should easily be worth 2x or more their current scale.
The SmarterEveryDay piece was disheartening for sure, echoes what I have been singing from the rooftops ever since the government dropped the USA origin of manufacturing requirements for all purchases. Sure, it was a kind of corporate welfare, and it made for a tricky incentive misalignment, but it kept a lot of strategic industries on life support. We would be in a way, way better position now if it hadn’t ended.
The window has shifted as to what constitutes “us made” though. For most things “US assembled” is the norm, and when you get out into things like office supplies, vehicles, and construction materials it’s often far from true domestic manufacturing. For strategic military stuff it’s better, but often at the cost of using 1990s tech because we don’t make the newer stuff here. (It also has the effect of making things more repairable, but that argument gets weaker and weaker as time goes on)
At this point I think in practice it’s a preference for US manufacturers but a long way from robust enough to establish domestic supply chains.
Also -a lot- of military purchases are local, discretionary on a credit card, and there is no oversight on the origin there- it’s whatever they need from office max or the hardware store.
That may be the case in many industries, but I don’t think it applies in this case. The industry isn’t flooded with people looking to move up, it’s starving for interest. The problem is that you can farm out the work overseas for much less than you can do it locally, because our automation is decades behind China.
Chinese skilled labor wages aren’t that low anymore. The reason they can do most work for 1/10 of the local cost is advanced automation, government VC investment, and somewhat less c-suite greed. The incentive alignment of the government VC is also distinct from typical US VC.
We can’t even build the machines that would enable that kind of automation in the USA. We’d need to buy them from China, IF China was willing to sell them to us. Unlike the USA, China is probably not going to be stupid about diluting their advantages. I’m sure the CCP hasn’t forgotten the decades where we were unwilling to sell them high precision machine tools lol.
Unfortunately, we are more likely to see a slow deterioration of the US economy and infrastructure, until we hit about a 5-6x wage advantage over China which we could potentially use to copy the Chinese playbook and rebuild our presence.
We could hand the full project file to a competitor and they almost certainly would not be able to build functional units. The failure points are fractal, so you need a strong intuition about what part you are installing, what qualities an ideal part has, what qualities the one in your hand has, how you might install it differently because of those qualities, and/or how you might change a later process to accommodate it. Or if the part should just be junked. The process is fraught with seemingly good intuitions that will ultimately lead you to failure as well.
These units also cannot be reworked, reused, or repaired, so any mistake before finalizing the build junks the entire thing.
For extremely low-entropy products, mother nature is incredibly unforgiving.