Drones don’t make as much sense if you have air superiority. Somebody like the US can carve holes in any frontline at will and create space for maneuver warfare. Drones only became important in the Ukraine war because neither side is able to establish air supremacy.
Very big if. The US is unlikely to have air superiority against a neer peer adversary.
And even with air superiority, the US hasn’t been able to win a single war since WW2 except 1991 Gulf.
Currently the US and Israel are failing to oust the Houthis from Yemen and Hamas from Gaza even with a massive multi year sustained bombing campaign from the air.
If manned aircraft can’t defeat insurgents like the Houthis and failed in conventional conflicts like Vietnam, and air superiority is unlikely against a near peer adversary with strong air defenses and nuclear retribution, then what is manned aircraft good for? Football game flyovers and chest thumping.
True until the day that dispersed drones behind the frontlines can stop an armored cavalry breakthrough. (I don't know if that day will ever come, but it may.)
I was curious how densely you needed drones — 1 per 5 or 6 sq km. A level that a force might accidentally have that many.
Assumptions:
- 5 drones per vehicle to achieve a neutralization
- 50 vehicles breaking through the line
- total of 250 drones to neutralize
- 30km range (60km/h with 20 minute flight time)
- which is ~1400 sq km (half circle of radius 30km)
- for 1 drone per 5 or 6 sq km required density
If you just hand out drones to squads and transport teams, there’s a non-trivial chance you’ll have that many in the relevant area. My understanding is that we’re only missing the tactics or automated swarming.
Also, I’m assuming wireless drones; only being able to use fiber drones would significantly change the math (with their more limited range).
It will be combined wars for sure, planes, tanks, infantry and drones at the same time. With air superiority the enemy has little chance to move heavy equipment around such as artillery. For every video we see about drones in Ukraine I bet you artillery kills a much larger percentage of the combatants.
