1. Good for China. Less money outflow. Chinese students study abroad and their parents send them all their money. More talent stays in China.
2. Good for US students. Less competition.
3. Bad for US universities in the North and West since they take on the most international students who pay a lot more for tuition.
4. Bad for international Chinese students who have less choices.
5. Good for European, Australia universities who will benefit from the talent and money.
6. Good for US tech workers who will see less competition in the short term.
7. Bad for US economy short term. Assume 300k Chinese students * $100k/year in spending average = $30 billion gone annually immediately. More students from other countries will fill some of the gap but their spending power is less.
8. Bad for US economy and tech supremacy long term because just look at how many Chinese names are on research papers published from US universities and how many work in important companies like Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Google, Microsoft, etc.
Americans maybe need to read up on a student study scheme called 'the Columbo plan' which Australia used to run.
You could study in Australia but at the end you had to go home. It was non-negotiable in most cases. It wasn't a visa entry pathway.
What it did, was develop a cadre of postdocs who had strong positive memories of their time in Australia, working in their homeland's government and civil society, who were able to help shape foreign policy towards amicable mutual outcomes.
Now, we just sell them accellerated visa entry after spending tens of thousands of dollars to buy a degree.
I think ending the Columbo plan was stupid.
Stopping young Chinese minds studying in America is going to stop them understanding western cultural ideals and values, and stop them becoming attuned, and potentially helpful. If you fixate on IPR theft or other problems, or use them as weapons in trade war, you don't fix the underlying problem.
I kind of preferred the arc of history where evil republicans like Nixon and Kissinger were not stupid.
I don't think Nixon and Kissinger were stupid. I think that they were wrong, and they certainly didn't care that their wrong ideas got a lot of innocent people killed. But I think that they were well read and could show a lot of data supporting their ideas.
If our arc of history were merely as bad as the Nixon and Kissinger era, we'd be a lot better off.
2. Good for US students. Less competition.
3. Bad for US universities in the North and West since they take on the most international students who pay a lot more for tuition.
4. Bad for international Chinese students who have less choices.
5. Good for European, Australia universities who will benefit from the talent and money.
6. Good for US tech workers who will see less competition in the short term.
7. Bad for US economy short term. Assume 300k Chinese students * $100k/year in spending average = $30 billion gone annually immediately. More students from other countries will fill some of the gap but their spending power is less.
8. Bad for US economy and tech supremacy long term because just look at how many Chinese names are on research papers published from US universities and how many work in important companies like Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Google, Microsoft, etc.