My layman view is that more compute (more reasoning) will not solve harder problems. I'm using those models every day and when problem hits a certain complexity it will fail, no matter how much it "reasons"
I think this is fairly easily debunked by o1, which is basically just 4o in a thinking for loop, and performs better on difficult tasks. Not a LOT better, mind you, but better enough to be measurable.
I had a similar intuition for a long time, but I’ve watched the threshold of “certain complexity” move, and I’m no longer convinced that I know when it’s going to stop
