To me, this seems like we are back again in 1953 and a company just announced they are now capable of building one of IBM's 5 computers for 10% of the price.
I really don't understand the rationale of "We can now train GPT 4o for 10% the price, so that will bring demand for GPUs down.". If I can train GPT 4o for 10% the price, and I have a budget of 1B USD, that means I'm now going to use the same budget and train my model for 10x as long (or 10x bigger).
At the same time, a lot of small players that couldn't properly train a model before, because the starting point was simply out of their reach, will now be able to purchase equipment that's capable of something of note, and they will buy even more GPUs.
P.S. Yes, I know that the original quote "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers", was taken out of context.
P.S.S. In this rationale, I'm also operating under the assumption that Deepseek numbers are real. Which, given the track record of Chinese companies, is probably not true.
I really don't understand the rationale of "We can now train GPT 4o for 10% the price, so that will bring demand for GPUs down.". If I can train GPT 4o for 10% the price, and I have a budget of 1B USD, that means I'm now going to use the same budget and train my model for 10x as long (or 10x bigger).
At the same time, a lot of small players that couldn't properly train a model before, because the starting point was simply out of their reach, will now be able to purchase equipment that's capable of something of note, and they will buy even more GPUs.
P.S. Yes, I know that the original quote "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers", was taken out of context.
P.S.S. In this rationale, I'm also operating under the assumption that Deepseek numbers are real. Which, given the track record of Chinese companies, is probably not true.