This is anti-vax misinformation. I don't think actual evidence, studies or data would support this. Let's take a look at real information and refresh our memories.
Uh, no. It's actually extremely effective against the target variant. The original Wuhan strain is extinct as a result. In areas with high vaccine uptake, the population has very high levels of neutralizing antibodies against it, to this day. Even if it somehow broke out again, it would die off within weeks, as most of the population is immune to it.
Evolution has driven the virus away from the neutralizing antibodies. This is called immune escape. Recent variants have very little antigenic overlap with the original strain. The original antibodies are not very effective, so people can actually get sick once again.
The FDA now updates the vaccine formulation every year. This means that every year, there is a time window during which the vaccine formulation and the circulating variant are the same. If you get an updated shot as soon as it becomes available, you're immune for all practical purposes until a new variant emerges.
Right, but most diseases we have vaccines for can’t easily evolve their way out of them like in this case. That’s kind of the point.
And you’re far from immune with the newest formulations. From the CDC: “People who received the updated COVID-19 vaccine were 54% less likely to get COVID-19 during the four-month period from mid-September 2023 to January 2024.”
The updated 2023 vaccine was based on XBB.1.5. In the period you quoted, the variants based on the massive BA.2.86 saltation took over, including JN.1 which was fully dominant by January. XBB.1.5 and BA.2.86 are antigenically very different. I would not be surprised if the case ratio between the two branches during the period was in fact 55:45, i.e. matching the CDC's 54%.
Regrettably, this is one's on the FDA, as XBB.1.5 was already on the way out when the FDA chose it. Part of the problem was their desire to include Novavax in the lineup. It has a much longer update turnaround time than Moderna and Pfizer, and Novavax had already committed to XBB.1.5 by the time the 2023 VRBPAC meeting took place.
As for the original vaccine, the waning measurements were in terms of antibody titers, not in terms of actual effectiveness against the target variant. Delta emerged in the spring of 2021, and it had significant immune escape from WT (Wuhan.) By the time the population was immunized against WT, Delta had already driven WT out.
There have not been many reported cases of non-immunocompromised people getting infected with the exact same variant they had been vaccinated against or previously infected with, particularly with WT. There has been too much evolution in the timeline to even dig out the signal.
The original WT mRNA effectiveness measurements were 92-95% IIRC. For all we know, the missing 5-8% might be attributable to immune deficits, early infections, and/or incomplete B-cell maturation. I haven't noticed any research that measured the likelihood of single-variant breakthrough infection, but if you find some I'd like to look at it.
As for other diseases, they are not in the pandemic phase, so their vaccines can be optimized accordingly.
I would dispute that "easily evolve" notion, though. There have been billions of Covid cases since 2019, including countless immunocompromised patients who are basically walking virus incubators. Yet there have only been a handful of major saltations. It's actually quite likely that Covid will eventually be defeated completely.
