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I will believe it when I see it. People like to point at the first part of a logistic curve and go "behold! an exponential".


Ah yes my favorite was the early covid numbers, some of the "smartest" people in the SF techie scene were daily on Facebook thought-leadering about how 40% of people were about to die in the likely case.


Let's be honest, everyone was speculating. Nobody knew what the future would bring, not even you.


The difference is some people were talking a whole lot confidently, and some weren’t.




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