How conveniently the narrative flips from massive inventory gluts and declining sales to anticipated supply shortages. Of course, this is the impulse[1] that the industry will collude around. Would really like to see policy surrounding CHIPS Act recipients nip this in the butt before it snowballs unchecked again.

[1] https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/

Expected? The RAM I was tracking on CamelCamelCamel is 25% more expensive than last month. It has begun...

Same thing happened in 1999 after Taiwan’s big earthquake then: (but I think they had more widespread power cuts that time)

> Production cuts caused by the quake will support recent price gains for benchmark 64-megabit dynamic random-access memory chips, or DRAM, to US$20 from less than $5 six months ago and about $15 in recent weeks.

> Wafer prices were expected to rise about 10 percent with annual yearend price increases brought forward to October, raising the cost of most electronics products before Christmas.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/daily/sept99/eco...

If DRAM m'fers are so sensitive to earthquakes, why dont the build in non earthquake prone zones (Central australia, etc?)

It's nice of you to assume that Australia has what it takes to manufacture chips but all we really like to do is dig minerals out of the ground and sell them to other countries to let them capture all that value.

With how the CHIPS Act stuff is going in the US it looks like it is not that easy to will fabrication plants into existence.

Well, semiconductor manufacture needs lots of water, so probably not Central Australia ...

Also, never underestimate the value of being close to easy shipping.

I believe you could even do it 50km from the coasts and still be able to pipe water to the plants, but you're likely right, its centralized shipping that is probably the biggest factor. Its also harder to justify price hikes with earthquakes when there are none.

Why would they when they make like bandits during the crisis? For reference see Oil producers profits during Covid lockdowns.

Your point is more correct than mine, I had completely forgotten about the human self-interest angle.

Interesting point how DRAM manufacturers slowed production to maintain high prices.

which would indicate that there's too much pricing power in the manufacturers and not enough competition.

I am not sure where the high prices is coming apart from HBM, considering DRAM contract prices hit record low last year and finally broke through the $2/GB barrier after nearly two decade of ups and downs.

This is kind of a problem when you manufacture memory in one place.