I would say this is an appeal to majority logical fallacy, but can we even quantify how many people actually believe in this, who have heard of this relatively obscure war in the first place?
Even at-the-time US Deputy Secretary of State called this a conspiracy theory.
Plus, I doubt you could bring about so many people who would be willing to blow up their countrymen so that they can fake an attack by some enemy and consolidate power for some up-and-coming politician. You would have to collect dozens of pure psychopaths to do that and all of them to remain quiet in the aftermath of the incident. With all that being said, it just doesn't seem very likely. That, or I'm being very naive, but I like to believe the former - not likely.
Still, I am not too familiar with this incident and the wars themselves. You seem to know more about this, so do you perhaps have some book recommendations?
I guess you aren't too familiar with the context. The Chechens wars were major post-USSR wars fought by Russia, extremely bloody and violent, and an awkward point in Russia's self image as a major power. In the first Chechen war, the tiny, remote breakaway region declared, and maintained on battlefield, it's independence from Mighty Russia. The Second installment undid that, and was what you would consider the first major popularity booster for Putin - regardless of whether the FSB was bombing its own people. Either way, the stakes were high, these weren't obscure wars.
As for the "pure psychopaths" bit... Russia has a long history of sacrificing its citizens for the Greater Good. The "meat grinder" in Ukraine is one example. Another, quite unambiguous one, is the Dubrovka theatre hostage crisis: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisi... . Terrorists (Chechen actually, though there is speculation, again, about FSB involvement) took a whole Moscow theatre hostage. The anti terrorist units attacked, killing all 40 terrorists but also over 120 of the hostages. A combat gas was injected into the theatre, which incapacitated the terrorists and allowed an armed attack, but also killed lots of the bystanders.
As for books, I can't recommend any "latest history" books on Russia, but you could do a lot worse than "Red Notice" by Bill Browder for general context. It's a great book, about a Western (American?) guy who goes to Russia in the 90s, sets up an activist hedge fund, and makes a killing. All was well so long as he was useful to the government, but when their paths diverged, all got rather messy.
I would say this is an appeal to majority logical fallacy, but can we even quantify how many people actually believe in this, who have heard of this relatively obscure war in the first place?
Even at-the-time US Deputy Secretary of State called this a conspiracy theory.
Plus, I doubt you could bring about so many people who would be willing to blow up their countrymen so that they can fake an attack by some enemy and consolidate power for some up-and-coming politician. You would have to collect dozens of pure psychopaths to do that and all of them to remain quiet in the aftermath of the incident. With all that being said, it just doesn't seem very likely. That, or I'm being very naive, but I like to believe the former - not likely.
Still, I am not too familiar with this incident and the wars themselves. You seem to know more about this, so do you perhaps have some book recommendations?