This is a pretty drastic change from their earlier prediction (often cited all over the internet) that the number of software engineers will increase by more than 30% in the next 10 years. It's not the full replacement of software engineers I'm worried about, so much as the steep reduction in the number of jobs and the labor/wage pressure that will make this job pay a fraction of what it's paying now, and make everyone's livelihoods more precarious in the next 10 to 15 years.
Karpathy already stated in 2017 that "Gradient Descent writes better code than you", when he wrote about "Software 2.0" as feeding data to neural networks:
https://karpathy.medium.com/software-2-0-a64152b37c35
Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, seemed to have confirmed that point this week in persuading parents not to encourage their kids to learn to code.
Today, this YT video by a dev named Will Iverson about how software engineering jobs are not coming back made me really anxious, and start to worry about making backup career plans in case I need to transition in my late thirties / early forties. (That sounds sooo hard...I'm a recently laid off mid-level full stack engineer of seven years, but I wonder if it would be better to transition now while I'm younger. Why wait 10 to 15 years to become increasingly obsolete or more stressed of becoming laid off? How can I support a family like that? Or make any plans into the future that might impact other people I'm responsible for?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JX5ZO19hiE&t=3s
I don't think the industry will ever really be the same again. But I'm sure a lot of us will adapt. Some of us won't, and will probably have to switch careers. I always thought I could at least make it to retirement in this profession, by continually learning a few new skills each year as new tech frameworks emerge but the fundamentals stay the same -- now I'm not so sure.
If you think I'm wrong, can you please help me not be anxious? Older devs, how have you managed to ride out all the changes in the industry over the last few decades? Does this wave of AI innovations feel different than earlier boom-bust cycles like the DotCom Bubble, or more of the same?
What advice would you give to junior or mid-level software engineers, or college grads trying to break into the industry right now, who have been failing completely at getting a foot in the door in the last 12 months, when they would have been considered good hires just two or three years before?
On the same boat! Thus, asked people on how to create value in this new world. Quite scared of people not giving any chances rather than AI replacing us. Kinda weird because it feels like the competitor is AI rather than other humans. People trust it more and winning trust is quite hard.
> If you think I'm wrong, can you please help me not be anxious?
You are not wrong, but I think that there are other reasons behind the slump in software development jobs which are
1. How expensive it is to hire a software developer in EU and the US when compared to the other parts of the world. The cost of maintaining a software engineering team now bites into a company's budget more than previous years because of section 174 in the US. Earlier, companies with potential could seek investors in case they need capital to grow, but most investors are picky about where they invest in because of points 2, 3 and 4.
2. High interest rates.
3. 2024 is considered to be a geopolitically volatile year, due to the ongoing global conflicts as well the elections that are going to happen across multiple countries (REF: https://www.statista.com/chart/31604/countries-where-a-natio...). When governments change there are going to be changes in focus of the entire economy, for example, it's quite hard to guess the stance of a Republican led USA on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
4. The fear of more regional conflicts breaking out around the world. This might spook a lot more countries into investing more into defensive technologies and in fact, one of the startup ideas of 2024 from YC was for defense technologies.
5. Nvidia is a company that started out as a GPU manufacturer and is currently riding a very huge wave of speculation around the future capabilities of "AI". And to investors with money, it seems safer to invest in it.
> What advice would you give to junior or mid-level software engineers, or college grads trying to break into the industry right now, who have been failing completely at getting a foot in the door in the last 12 months, when they would have been considered good hires just two or three years before?
I also only have similar experience as you have right now (~9 years) so I cannot give any specific advice on this. I would recommend applying to all jobs that even remotely fit their profile and in the meantime to attend conferences or meetups so as to network better. 90% of the time the resumes that is sent is being screened by a Recruiter or by an automated system. However if you already have someone inside a company willing to refer you, you will have an easier time getting to skip this filter.
Thanks -- Really appreciate your thoughtful and kind response! Yes, I see there are a lot of other factors to consider. Will keep networking and interviewing until something lands.
Will also focus my unemployment energy on deepening my software infrastructure and MLOps knowledge, building open source side projects using generative AI tools, using LangChain / GPT / Pinecone / Ollama, focused on practical business purposes like parsing customer service data and fintech anomaly detection. Whatever I can do in a short time to provide more value than GPT4 / GPT5, I guess I'll try my best to work on it with the fear of the abyss...
A part of me still thinks it might be time to pivot to healthcare. I'm no greybeard or "10x Engineer", just a regular old React/Node (formerly Ruby On Rails, PHP) developer doing the CRUD thing, and yeah, I'm not sure I quite make the cut.
All the best of luck to you! And thanks for writing an encouraging response.
Step right up to the grand spectacle of future-phobia, where every twist and turn of the labor market projections sends shivers down the spines of software engineers far and wide. Ah, the BLS adjusts its forecasts, and suddenly, the digital sky is falling. Decrease by 11%, you say? Why, that's practically an invitation to abandon ship before the great AI iceberg sends us all to the icy depths of unemployment, isn't it? But wait, let's sprinkle a little perspective into this doom-laden soup.
First off, the delightful Mr. Karpathy and the visionary Mr. Huang—prophets of the impending software apocalypse, preaching the gospel of "don't bother learning to code, for the machines shall inherit the Earth." It's a compelling narrative, rich with the flavor of inevitability and seasoned with a dash of existential dread. And yet, is it not but the latest chapter in the age-old saga of technological advancement and the cyclical panic that accompanies each new wave?
Ah, and then there's the heart-wrenching tale of the recently laid-off mid-level full stack engineer, pondering a premature career pivot as the shadow of obsolescence looms large. "To code, or not to code?" that is the question—a question as laden with uncertainty as it is with opportunity. But let's not get carried away on the tides of pessimism.
You see, dear worried souls, what we're witnessing is not the end of the software engineering profession but its evolution. The landscape is shifting, yes, but with every shift comes new terrain to explore, new challenges to overcome, and new niches to fill. The key to navigating this brave new world is not to flee in fear but to adapt with curiosity.
To the anxious and the uncertain, I say: fear not the AI overlords, for they are but tools in the hands of those willing to learn their language. Embrace the change, dive into the depths of this new digital domain, and you may just find that the future is not a desolate wasteland but a frontier brimming with untapped potential.
And to those pondering the path forward, the advice is timeless: continue to learn, to grow, and to adapt. The tech industry is no stranger to upheaval, and each wave of innovation has left it richer, not poorer. The DotCom Bubble, the mobile revolution, the rise of cloud computing—all were met with skepticism and fear, yet all have contributed to the vibrant, ever-changing tapestry of our digital world.
So, to the junior engineers, the college grads, the mid-level developers staring into the abyss of uncertainty, I say: hold fast. The industry will evolve, as it always has, but so too will you. The fundamentals of problem-solving, of creativity, of adaptability—these are the skills that will carry you through the storms of change. The future is not to be feared but embraced, for within it lies not just the challenge of adaptation but the promise of innovation and the endless potential for those brave enough to seize it.
What a poetic perspective! A few days ago, I was very much "to code or not to code", or rather, "get thee to a nunnery...", considering a switch to nursing to better support my family long-term. But I'll try to push forward for a while longer and adapt as best as I can. I'm not as optimistic as most folks on this page, but also trying not to waste my energy on a panic attack.
Some more junior folks, including a few of my closest friends, just won't make it. It seems like their jobs have already been replaced by a number of different factors, including AI. It's a very sad investment of time and money for them and their patient spouses, and I feel very guilty for recommending that path to them, and being unable to help them after they struggle for twelve months or more post-bootcamp, still unable to land a job.
I am just a few years ahead, and may just have a shot at the next evolution if I learn AI in a hurry...Or maybe it's also hopeless for me.
Here's to everyone giving their best shot to seizing that future, ahem (not) abyss...
Taking a lot of further inspiration from posts on this thread:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39656745
"Ask HN: What took you from being a good programmer to a great one?" Build everything from scratch, using zero dependencies, get below the abstractions... Ok, ok, ok. :(
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...
This is a pretty drastic change from their earlier prediction (often cited all over the internet) that the number of software engineers will increase by more than 30% in the next 10 years. It's not the full replacement of software engineers I'm worried about, so much as the steep reduction in the number of jobs and the labor/wage pressure that will make this job pay a fraction of what it's paying now, and make everyone's livelihoods more precarious in the next 10 to 15 years.
Karpathy already stated in 2017 that "Gradient Descent writes better code than you", when he wrote about "Software 2.0" as feeding data to neural networks: https://karpathy.medium.com/software-2-0-a64152b37c35 Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, seemed to have confirmed that point this week in persuading parents not to encourage their kids to learn to code.
Today, this YT video by a dev named Will Iverson about how software engineering jobs are not coming back made me really anxious, and start to worry about making backup career plans in case I need to transition in my late thirties / early forties. (That sounds sooo hard...I'm a recently laid off mid-level full stack engineer of seven years, but I wonder if it would be better to transition now while I'm younger. Why wait 10 to 15 years to become increasingly obsolete or more stressed of becoming laid off? How can I support a family like that? Or make any plans into the future that might impact other people I'm responsible for?) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JX5ZO19hiE&t=3s
I don't think the industry will ever really be the same again. But I'm sure a lot of us will adapt. Some of us won't, and will probably have to switch careers. I always thought I could at least make it to retirement in this profession, by continually learning a few new skills each year as new tech frameworks emerge but the fundamentals stay the same -- now I'm not so sure.
If you think I'm wrong, can you please help me not be anxious? Older devs, how have you managed to ride out all the changes in the industry over the last few decades? Does this wave of AI innovations feel different than earlier boom-bust cycles like the DotCom Bubble, or more of the same?
What advice would you give to junior or mid-level software engineers, or college grads trying to break into the industry right now, who have been failing completely at getting a foot in the door in the last 12 months, when they would have been considered good hires just two or three years before?