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>Public perception matches people's experiences.

Going back to the crime example, was this true? People's perceptions contradicted crime statistics. Are you claiming that the crime statistics were wrong and people were somehow getting increasingly victimized?



The FBI crime reports indicate that crime went down in 2022. The National Crime Victimization Survey indicates that crime went up in 2022.

For example, the FBI reports state that total violent crime went down by 2% in 2022. The victimization survey states that it went up by 75%.

The victimization survey also indicates that people are reporting a smaller percentage of crime to the police.


See, this is a great example of how carefully selected data causes a false perception. The increase you cite is charted on https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics. It looks like this: https://imgur.com/a/6dgFRrp


That chart gives me the perception that crime went up in 2022, which is the perception I get from the victimization survey data I mentioned, and which is opposite of the perception I get from the FBI crime report data that says that violent crime went down in 2022.

What is the false perception you think people get from "the FBI reports state that total violent crime went down by 2% in 2022. The victimization survey states that it went up by 75%"?


The chart reveals that the "violent crime victimization 'went up by 75%'" statistic reflects a level that is still historically among the lowest in decades. The same data also could be described as "back to 2018's already-low level" or "nearly 1/4th the amount of crime as the early 1990s".


Many urban areas saw an increase in crime starting around 2020. When it comes to crime (especially violent), it doesn’t take much to change your perception. 1 incident you’re personally involved in is usually 1 too many. Seeing near misses doesn’t help.

The economy is similar - unnecessary stuff is still accessible, but major necessities (food, housing) are worse than ever.

Trends are what influence perception - and rightly so. We’re the most technically advanced we’ve ever been and we’re regressing on the important things. Negative public reaction is (unfortunately) necessary to continue our overall positive trend.


>Many urban areas saw an increase in crime starting around 2020

AFAIK crime statistics do show a small uptick during the pandemic, but people thinking crime is on the rise predates that (ie. during the 2000s and 2010s, despite statistics showing otherwise).




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