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I wrote this for a different community (filled with semiliterate sophists), but this is absolutely huge and could upend huge swathes of understanding about the last two thousand years.

You can avoid the longform essay below if you want. The short of it is there are several potentially common works possibly in the library that could directly prove or disprove what is found in the New Testament and the predicates of Rabbinic Judaism as established at the Council of Jamnia.

We could be seeing the beginning of conclusive proof that invalidates the narratives of Christianity, Judaism, and Islam by the end of the year.

The Vesuvius Challenge isn't just an interesting contest in the machine learning realm; it's a groundbreaking endeavor that could redefine our understanding of the humanities if successful. The opportunity to digitally unroll and read the Herculaneum Papyri could offer unprecedented insights into ancient civilizations and the total feedstock of civilization today. This is not merely about filling in some historical gaps; it’s about fundamentally altering how we understand antiquity and, by extension, our own intellectual heritage.

The loss of the Library of Alexandria has long been considered a "dark age" event for intellectual progress. Now, consider the Herculaneum library—a collection of papyri from a villa once owned by Julius Caesar's father-in-law, carbonized but preserved by the Vesuvius eruption in 79 AD. Hundreds of these scrolls are unreadable because their carbon-based ink blends in with the carbonized papyrus, and thus are invisible to conventional imaging techniques. Yet, these scrolls are quite possibly on the cusp of revelation.

Recent developments have introduced machine learning and high-resolution X-ray scans as methods for reading these "unreadable" scrolls. What texts do they contain? Treatises on science and philosophy? The lost books of Livy? The epic cycle? Governmental policies like the Twelve Tables? It’s a tantalizing question because whatever is locked in those scrolls could be an unfiltered look at the Roman Empire—an empire that fundamentally influenced the trajectory of Western culture, religion, governance, and philosophy.

Ponder a history of Rome that has not been retouched by myriadic emperors, by Constantine's Christianity, or the interpretive lens of the Roman Catholic Church. Unmediated accounts of Roman society, unaltered by the layers of religious and political power that came later, could rewrite our textbooks and shift the justification of history. It’s not just about enriching our understanding of ancient civilizations; this could be a cornerstone on which to build a fresh philosophical understanding of human society.

If the project succeeds, there will be repercussions in the academic realm. The humanities have long struggled to justify their existence in a world that increasingly prizes STEM and lacks any novel sources for the classical world. Suddenly, there could be a concrete, urgent task at hand: to decode, interpret, and integrate an influx of new knowledge. The Vesuvius Challenge could revitalize the field, offering an unforeseen but compelling reason for its study. In essence, it provides a utilitarian justification for the humanities, one that transcends 'cultural enrichment' and enters the realm of 'historical redefinition.'

The Vesuvius Challenge could be the hinge upon which history swings, yielding intellectual treasure that could be as groundbreaking as the writings that were lost in Alexandria. For millennia, those scrolls have remained unread. Now, it's a software problem. That's not just a challenge; it’s an imperative.

The presence of specific works in the Herculaneum Papyri could dramatically impact our understanding of major historical events.

In particular for me, I pray that the biography of Herod the Great by Nicholas of Damascus is discovered intact. While mainstream accounts generally portray the life of Herod within the context of Roman patronage and Judaean politics, uncovering a contemporary account by a close intimate (and used as a primary source by Josephus) would offer fresh, unmediated insights into his rule and its socio-political intricacies. Chronologies of the life of Jesus could be explicitly validated or disproved.

The relevance here is far from academic. Consider the following naturalistic hypothesis: that the inception and rise of Christianity was entirely a dynastic struggle within the Hasmonean-Herodian line. What if the tale of Jesus is, in essence, a dramatized, mystified rendition of a 1st-century dynastic conflict, one that was subsequently co-opted and transformed into a religious narrative by an early form of conspiratorial thinking? Something like a 1st-century version of Q-anon, distorting real events to serve an alternative, concealed agenda in the aftermath of the First Jewish-Roman War.

Unveiling a document like Nicholas of Damascus' biography could be groundbreaking in testing such a hypothesis. If Herod's life and rule were detailed without the religious overlays that later Christian interpretations bring into the picture, one could make more definitive assertions about the socio-political environment of the time. Furthermore, it could provide concrete evidence to either substantiate or refute theories about Christianity's emergence as a byproduct of a Herodian-Hasmonean power struggle.

The fact that such a theory could be tested is significant in its own right. Traditionally, discussions about early Christianity rely heavily on religious texts and subsequent historical accounts, many of which are fraught with dogma and ideological interpretations. A primary source devoid of such influences would be a game-changer, offering a baseline of raw data from which more accurate and reliable hypotheses could be drawn.

And it's not limited solely to Christianity. Rabbinic Judaism could have equally monumental implications as a result. The owner of the villa, likely a wealthy Roman, would be unlikely to have had any primary Hebrew texts like the Pentateuch. However, that doesn't rule out the possibility of possessing Greek or Latin works discussing Jewish culture, beliefs, and politics. Given the villa's historical context, it's conceivable that there might be indirect ethnographic accounts from the period surrounding the destruction of Jerusalem in 70 AD but before the Council of Jamnia, traditionally dated around 90 AD, which helped canonize Hebrew scriptures.

Why is this important? The Council of Jamnia is often cited as a crucial moment for the development of Rabbinic Judaism. It allegedly led to the fixing of the Hebrew Bible canon and crystallized what would become Talmudic tradition. If documents were to surface that provide a snapshot of Judaic thought and practice just before this council, it could upend millennia of precedent and identity.

In a broader context, discovering pre-Jamnia ethnographic sources could significantly change our understanding of how Judaism adapted and evolved in the aftermath of the Second Temple's destruction. This could lead to far-reaching questions. How much of the Talmudic tradition was actually a post-hoc rationalization or systematization of beliefs and practices that were far more fluid before the Council of Jamnia? How much anti-Romanism was pared away to prevent suppression? Moreover, how would such a revelation interact with or even challenge the validity of current Rabbinic and Orthodox Jewish practices?

The implications for the Judeo-Christian heritage as a whole are staggering. If both Christianity and Judaism could be traced back explicitly to politically or socially motivated machinations, rather than divinely inspired or time-honored traditions, the entire foundation of Judeo-Christian culture would come into question. In essence, the Vesuvius Challenge has the potential to destabilize two of the world’s major religious traditions at their historical roots. It is difficult to overstate the potential impacts.

The Vesuvius Challenge is not just an academic or technological endeavor. Its success could instigate an unparalleled epistemological crisis in religious studies and the humanities. It provides the opportunity to re-examine, with primary sources, the historical foundations of Western religious, cultural, and ultimately political traditions. We're not just potentially rewriting history here; we're reevaluating the very frameworks through which that history has been understood.



I mean, I admire your optimism that historical texts will somehow shake the foundations of religious institutions. However, speaking as someone who lives in Utah, among folks who base their entire belief system on the ramblings of a 19th century scam artist and, I kid you not, magic plates left by the Ancient Egyptians in Illinois.. I think evidence counter to Judeo-Christian belief systems will change precisely nothing.

On the bright side, it will be really fascinating to those of us who like history. We might learn a thing or two from these ancient texts, so there's certainly a silver lining.


Illinois? What belief system is that?

Anyway, Christian followers already expect science to bring faith into question.

I'm one such follower who believes science and faith can describe the same truth, as long as the science and faith are both accurate. Both are systems of experimentation, trial and error. There is much we can learn from historical records!


Mormons believe that Joseph Smith translated the Book of Mormon from golden plates (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_plates) that he found near his home in upstate New York, which might be what OP's referring to.


I figured; it's just an important detail that "someone who lives in Utah" would know if they took the slightest bit of time getting to know or understand the religion that surrounds them. It follows that claims of "scam artist" and "magic plates" and "ancient Egyptians" may be dubious, as the person making the claim doesn't actually know the most basic story of the faith.


Do you have any counter cites? Because it seems pretty close!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_plates


Primary sources.

The only references to Egypt are in relation to the language, not actual Egyptians: https://www.josephsmithpapers.org/search?query=egyptians&typ...

i.e. the plates were written in a language reformed from original Egyptian -- which makes sense, as ancient Hebrews would sometimes write in Egyptian characters when enscribing was difficult (metal plates!) because the Egyptian script was more concise. It became reformed after a thousand years on the other side of the world, far removed from original Egyptian land and culture. No Egyptians were ever involved with burying the plates. That would have been a native American, technically a Jew, whose ancestors came over from Jerusalem / ancient Israel.

As for magic plates, there's nothing in the historical record claiming that the plates themselves were magic: https://www.josephsmithpapers.org/search?query=magic&types=d...

I guess anyone could say anything they want about them, but those who actually saw and handled the plates never claimed they were "magic" as far as I can tell.

Then as for scam artist -- I suppose that is a matter of personal judgment, since no fair trial ever occurred or made a guilty verdict before he was murdered.


> Then as for scam artist -- I suppose that is a matter of personal judgment, since no fair trial ever occurred or made a guilty verdict before he was murdered.

It's mildly impressive that in the same sentence where you mention there was no guilty verdict "for scam artist", you say Joseph Smith was "murdered", a thing for which there was also no guilty verdict: the five men indicted for the killings were acquitted.


I have to say, this inspired me to track down an account of what transpired - and it is wild! [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Joseph_Smith]

Treason against Illinois? Polygamy? Declaring Martial Law? Being kicked out of Missouri after a war named after your religion? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1838_Mormon_War]

All while running for President of the United States, and just before being lynched by an angry mob?

And with no convictions for those accused?

Truly an overachiever.

P.S. One of the best quotes I've ever seen - Missouri Gov. Boggs had an attempted assassination, and during the trial of the most likely suspect - Smith associate Porter Rockwell - Rockwell successfully defended himself with, among other things, (per wikipedia) his reputation as a deadly gunman and his statement that he "never shot at anybody, if I shoot they get shot!... He's still alive, ain't he?".

Amazing.


> you say Joseph Smith was "murdered", a thing for which there was also no guilty verdict: the five men indicted for the killings were acquitted.

Those 5 men were acquitted, but he still died from being shot multiple times by a mob. How could that not be murder?


If you can read this [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_plates] and not get the same conclusion for 'Scam Artist', then I'm truly impressed.


> as ancient Hebrews would sometimes write in Egyptian characters when enscribing was difficult (metal plates!) because the Egyptian script was more concise.

That’s almost complete nonsense. You give me a chisel and I’ll carve Hebrew in Aramaic square script or paleo-Hebrew much faster than hieroglyphs. A angular hieratic might be a draw, but that’d also be needlessly complicated. The small part that’s not nonsense: some early Semitic texts are written in a simplified form of hieroglyphs that would later evolve into the alphabets we use today, including the usual scripts used to write Hebrew. But those writings weren’t any more concise by using simplified hieroglyphs verses another script.

This Mormon Sunday-school myth is born out of a misunderstanding of how Egyptian hieroglyphs work that impeded their decipherment from late antiquity until the early 1800’s. Namely, that hieroglyphs were some deep allegorical language where a single symbol could be emblematic of entire sentences or more. Joseph Smith apparently believed this, as evidenced by his attempts to translate Egyptian funerary texts as “The Book of Abraham.” We have interlinear manuscripts showing him translating entire sentences and paragraphs from single symbols.

This misunderstanding is further reflected in 1 Nephi 1:2, “I make a record in the language of my father, which consists of the learning of the Jews and the language of the Egyptians.” There are ways to read that line that don’t implicate the widespread misunderstanding of how hieroglyphs work, but the misunderstanding is the one that was generally held at the time the Book of Mormon was published and continuing to today.


QED


Nauvoo, IL


Yes, that is where a temple was burned by arsonists and where the leader lived when he was murdered. But I don't think any church is claiming that "magic plates" where left there by Egyptians.

(I grew up near there and have visited the town many times.)


The location was actually in New York. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_plates

And the history of why the temple got burned was basically ‘because he was stealing all the women’. According to the angry mob that burned it. If I remember correctly.


A note on the type and number of the texts, from the site:

"Early attempts to open the scrolls unfortunately destroy many of them. A few are painstakingly unrolled by an Italian monk over several decades, and they are found to contain philosophical texts written in Greek. More than six hundred remain unopened and unreadable.

What's more, excavations were never completed, and many historians believe that thousands more scrolls remain underground.

Imagine the secrets of Roman and Greek philosophy, science, literature, mathematics, poetry, and politics, which are locked away in these lumps of ash, waiting to be read!"


A first edition of the Gospel of John countering the modern version would be great but not sure that a Roman pagan library would bother storing such a thing, then you're left with someone's historical/pagan take on the first century AD. Some histories of Palestine or Christians causing trouble in Rome seem possible, or notes on a Herod's time in power that don't match the Christian narrative. but none of this seems too threatening, large swathes of Christian thought now treats the birth narrative as ahistorical. It might be another blow for the bible literalists, but they're a small group overall and those battles have been going on since the 2nd century. Another Josephus or Tacitus would be great. The big opportunity here is to dismiss the Jesus myth-ers by finding more evidence that a person called Jesus existed. The impact of this on questions around the divinity of Jesus seem rather moot, Tacitus and Josephus talk history from non-Christian perspectives, not theology.


So this is just the very begining? Will they be able to decypher whole docs? I guess you wouldn't have written all that otherwise!

Anyway, if there's religion involved, I doubt any revelation will shake anything.


That's true of zealots, but growing the religion anywhere where literate people are will become exceptionally difficult if the myth of Jesus the Christ turns out to be, say, a cipher of the re-execution of Alexandros I, the son of Herod the Great and Mariamne I, with contemporary first-party proofs untouched by time. Sure, there'll be dinosaurs-are-just-a-test-of-faith types, but the explanation of Christianity as a naturalistic emergence with the "mysteries" of the religion given banal and explicit answers would likely make the revolutions in Biblical criticism in the 19th century (e.g. linguistic analysis revealing multiple authors with narrow dates) look like child's play in comparison.

At any time in the last sixteen hundred years, if such evidence were uncovered, it would've been burned immediately and the monastic reading it likely consigned to perpetual silence, lest the word get out.

But the hegemony of Christianity in the West is over.


What makes you think "myth of Jesus the Christ turns out to be, say, a cipher of the re-execution of Alexandros I, the son of Herod the Great and Mariamne I" is at all likely? I read a theory once that Jesus Christ was a reinterpretation of Julius Caesar that was adopted by Romans after the former imperial cult fell out of favor. That seems farfetched, but more likely than this - at least it provides a better explanation of why Romans cared about Christianity.

I'd love to have texts that spoke more about the origins of Christianity and Judaism, but it's far more likely that this trove will contain nothing of the sort - you could imagine a Roman aristocrat in Italy caring about this, but it doesn't seem especially likely.


>What makes you think "myth of Jesus the Christ turns out to be, say, a cipher of the re-execution of Alexandros I, the son of Herod the Great and Mariamne I" is at all likely?

It's not just Nicholas of Damascus that would reveal such information. Gaius Asinius Pollio, a multifaceted Roman figure known for his connections with literary giants like Virgil and Horace as well as Augustus himself, mentored Alexander, the son of Herod the Great. The Roman world in the first century was wide.

Anyway, as to why I think it's possible, I think it's the most simple explanation as to how it emerged. According to what we have (i.e. Josephus) Alexander had the support of the public but was disliked by Herod's loyalists due to his opposing qualities and lineage from the Hasmonean dynasty.

Herod the Great, notorious for his brutal tactics, killed off male members of the Hasmonean dynasty and married the last Hasmonean princess to solidify his rule. He exhibited suspicion towards his wife Mariamne who was also killed eventually, along with their son Alexander.

I posit that Alexander was not actually executed, being a popular favorite and the son of the tyrant who might regret his decision and punish accordingly. Instead, he laid low until Herod's death, aiming to rightfully claim the throne, but was instead executed to maintain Roman rule over Judea with the consent of the Sanhedrin.

After the First Roman-Jewish War, continued supporters of Alexander coded secret histories into what became the apocryphal and synoptic gospels. Episodes like the massacre of the innocents coming from the Hasmonean male purge, "Jesus" being found in His Father's temple coming from Alexander visiting the building site of the Second Temple erected by his father, Herod. There are plenty of other episodes that seem to neatly correspond to and dispel underlying "mysteries" in the synoptic gospels for anyone actually looking for them.

The survival of works by Asinius Pollio or Nicholas of Damascus in particular in the Herculaneum library could confirm or refute this theory. Their writings, likely popular in aristocratic households due to Nicholas and Gaius Asinius Pollio's favor with the Julians, would very much be pertinent to a Roman aristocrat in 79AD.

But I don't need to prove it via circumstantial and inferential evidence--that's why I'm excited. We could actually uncover period documentation by the actual participants rather than the heresay of the following generations living under the shadow of Roman retribution.


I'm not sure why you think an explanation involving a vast empire-spanning conspiracy supported with widespread propaganda and centuries of silence and suppression even from its enemies is more likely than the usual naturalistic explanation "Jesus was a real figure who did the non-supernatural things ascribed to him."

People love these conspiracy theories about religions but they're definitely not the simple or logical explanations.


What are you even on about?

I'm talking about widespread suppression of Jews, whether Christianized or not, that is documented before and in the aftermath of the first Jewish-Roman war, which occurred 68-74AD.

There's no empire-spanning conspiracy lasting centuries, but a continual massage of what came before to justify the current status quo, an extremely similar dynamic as what is recognized by biblical scholars when treating the Old Testament.


Christianized Jews and Jews generally were spread throughout and beyond the empire. The persecutions, even postwar, were terrible but relatively localized and there is no reason to believe it involved the mass redaction of all existing documents (not even possible!) and then-unwritten oral histories (which then everyone, antisemites, Christians, pagans, all alike decided to maintain silence about even though they would have been delighted to show their enemies up with this evidence) except that it makes people feel clever to think so.

Even more incredibly, plenty of heretical documents did survive! People were one hundred percent successful absolutely crushing any leaks of a vast conspiracy to “justify the status quo” (why do you even think it needed justifying?) even against powerful groups that would not have wanted to…but couldn’t stop eg the Gnostics.

Most scholars don’t think that about the Old Testament either, although I have been learning lately it is very much in vogue on certain corners of the Internet. But at least that is in some respects at certain times more plausible depending on the specific text and time period being talked about, if very early. The Christianity conspiracy theories really aren’t. There’s no evidence for them whatever and yours in particular boggles belief, and is really not remotely feasible. This is basically the zeitgeist nonsense with a different spin.


I still have no idea what you're ranting on about, but it's clearly not related to anything I've said. Cheers.


They're talking about what is required for your theory to work. You have no idea about it because you've never thought it out.

Your theory requires a massive conspiracy because otherwise the surviving documents we have that criticise early Christianity blow your theory out of the water.


Can you suggest a good book on this topic?


Demographics refutes your last point.

“by Constantine's Christianity“ is also an interesting reference, although he was just a politician realizing half of the population had adopted a revolutionizing family structure.


>Demographics refutes your last point.

By all means, please explain.



>These projections, which take into account demographic factors such as fertility, age composition and life expectancy, forecast that people with no religion will make up about 13% of the world’s population in 2060, down from roughly 16% as of 2015.

That's certainly a trend, but it's in relative terms, not absolute terms. The study also did not break the demographics down by religion, nor does it represent hegemony. They don't control the government or the educational institutions. Even further, the notion that religiosity in the West will be Christian is unproven.

Regardless, the kind of active suppression of contradictory evidence to religious narratives that was historically present from the early middle ages to the early modern period is no longer extant. The Church can put any discovered texts on a Novus Index Librorum Prohibitorum all they want, but that's not going to stop academia or the Internet from mining it.

Also, I can speak from personal experience with a traditionalist Catholic father, none of his many kids are Catholic. Having kids doesn't mean successfully keeping them religious.


The interesting thing about moving forward is we are entering the post truth era where technology can spoof and create an unlimited set of falsehoods.

Active information suppression in this era is mostly the work of governments and government aligned corporations.

Random question about the last point, did your upbringing involve nightly family prayer and thanksgiving? Or was the post war impact too great to maintain that tradition?


How does this theory reconcile the existence and growth of Scientology or Mormonism? Or hell, the recent rise of QAnon?


As far as QAnon goes, this would be like discovering an unsecured laptop that actually belonged to the original Q and had something like IRC channel logs that they used when generating "what won't they believe" type ideas.

As for Scientology and Mormonism, they don't have explicitly historical and rational claims to truth like the Catholic Church and some sects of Judaism do. Ask a fervent Catholic or Orthodox Jew why they believe what they do and they'll say "Because it's true." As far as I know (I don't spend significant time with Mormons or Scientologists), they don't make this type of claim to be historically validated by peak reason.


> As far as I know [Mormons] don't make this type of claim to be historically validated by peak reason.

Mormons absolutely believe that their religion is backed up by history: the book of Mormon is about and ostensibly by various descendants of Old Testament figures who migrated to the Americas, culminating in the burial of golden tablets with "Reformed Egyptian" writing in upstate New York. It's obviously fiction - but that doesn't seem to make much difference.


I know both fervent Catholics who do not feel the historical accuracy of the Bible is what makes their belief in God accurate, and Mormons who believe in the literal historical accuracy of their religion.


As a short addenda and much more within reach of the project is that we have many hapax legomena (that is a word or an expression that occurs only once within a context) in classical Western languages that are likely to have meanings discerned on the basis of these new texts (not to say anything of new hapax legomena).

For example, the Iliad and Odyssey alone contain around 500 hapaxes. Even if the ground is not shaken, there will at least be some tremors in the field, regardless of whether whole works will.be able to be successfully recovered.


I don't think academics are as deferent to scripture as you think, so I don't anticipate an epistemological crisis. Exciting development nonetheless


> I wrote this for a different community (filled with semiliterate sophists), but this is absolutely huge and could upend huge swathes of understanding about the last two thousand years.

Surely writing an essay isn't a good way to convince them if they're illiterate? Maybe they can use TTS.


I wonder how the Sophistry will play out over teletype.


Sophists have an unfairly bad reputation, if you'd just take the time to listen to them uncritically then I think you'll find much of what they have to say very convincing.


Comments like this are why I read HN.


So HN also has its crackpots.




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