I know it's naive of me to hope, but I hope that if a large part of the "western" world is affected by the gulf stream weakening then more definitive action will be taken against climate change.
Something related in the novel Project Hail Mary affected me greatly: "I've run the best models I have. Crops are going to fail. The global staple crops are wheat, barley, millet, potatoes, soy, and most important of all, rice. All of them are pretty sensitive about temperature ranges. If your rice paddy freezes over, the rice dies. If your potato farm floods, the potatoes die. And if your wheat farm experiences ten times normal humidity, it gets fungal parasites and dies."
Sure, we may not be looking at freezing rice paddies, but flooding is absolutely affecting people all over the world due to the warmer air holding more moisture.
Sadly, we have reached a stage at which change is much harder – first because we've waited way too long, secondly because the West is currently faced with a war (which might be in the process of blowing up into a world war, we'll see), a financial crisis and a democratic crisis.
It is increasingly out of control of the western world: most CO2 emissions are now coming from Asia - and the current trend is falling emissions in the west, more than offset by rising emissions in the rest of the world.
Some countries (China and Russia) see advantages in warming for themselves (shipping through the arctic for both, increasing agricultural land area for both).
I generated a little graph showing the trends (using Our World In Data) and wrote a few comments a while back:
> Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.
I don't want you to be correct, but I fear that you are. My heart breaks thinking about it. My stepdaughter is 23, and she's going to live through some very tough times.
People in positions of power and influence seem to think they can flee to New Zealand and life will continue as before. I don't know how to disabuse them of that notion.
A lot of people are making money by building fear in the ultra rich. They are really gullible. Really hard to bring people that have been scammed up to reason.
Maybe the biggest problem is how big a problem it is. The extent of the problems we're facing may be too overwhelming for the average person to fully comprehend.
Overshoot encompasses many aspects, including biodiversity loss, deforestation, pollution, resource depletion, and much more.
The fundamental issue is the need for constant growth in a finite environment. Almost all money in the system is created through loans by banks, and there is an interest on that money that must be paid, typically around 3% or so, and this interest compounds exponentially.
As a result, our growth is exponential, and there is no sign of it slowing down. Our GDP doubles every 30 years, while our finite natural environment is the first to be sacrificed in an attempt to service one's debts.
All we see is an attempt at solving the energy, and only partially - because it's the easiest problem. We don't see any real debate about degrowth, reforestation, equity, food system, financial system ... no real progress on any front.
- We should stop using fossil fuels as soon as possible.
- Transitioning to plant-based diets can free up an area the size of both Americas, allowing for reforestation that would halt biodiversity loss and sequester as much carbon as we've released since the Industrial Revolution.
- Agriculture must be reformed to eliminate our reliance on harmful pesticides and practices that destroy biodiversity.
- Overfishing and pollution must be stopped to preserve marine life and ecosystems.
- Developed countries should pursue degrowth while supporting the development of less developed nations.
- Education and restoration should be prioritized over exploitation.
Animal species have witnessed a 70% decline in just the last 50 years. How long until our insect and pollinator populations collapse? How long until forests completely lose their ability to retain moisture and generate rain? How long until oceans are devoid of fish or sharks (with 90% already gone), leading to the collapse of the entire marine ecosystem? How long until major crop failures occur?
There have been collapses of civilizations before, but there has never been a total collapse of the biosphere as well. So I too worry for the future of today's young.
> allowing for reforestation that would [...] sequester as much carbon as we've released since the Industrial Revolution.
That's a common mistake. It won't. Plants sequester carbon only while they are alive. When they die, the carbon returns to the atmosphere. A forest, even with that size won't make a significant impact on carbon stored compared to how much oil and coal we burned. The only solution would be to re-create the carbon deposits, but that can't happen anymore.
The oil we mined from the ground in about 150 years took hundreds of millions of years to form and from what I recall from the subject, it happened in a time where bacteria and fungus didn’t exist to release that carbon from downed trees Abe plants or whatever. The only way to sequester carbon now would be to spend more energy than was released (putting those bonds back together is hard) from our oil use to create something like inorganic carbon bricks we could try and bury underground somewhere that bacteria and fungus cannot reach.
Good luck to us, I’m not confident we can do it. I’m hoping we can though, I have a toddler. I hate climate deniers, to me they are trying to make my son’s life worse and worse because they don’t want their life to be lesser than they expected.
> Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.
For now, American citizens can ask congress to support a carbon fee and dividend [1], which would create a financial incentive for the system to dismantle itself. There are few forces in the world more powerful than individuals deciding to save money.
> So if it’s inevitable, what are the possible positive effects?
I cannot see any positive effects. We should try to prevent the inevitable, while there's still some time. Not long. But some.
> Should we start looking at transitioning to the changes
I’m starting to think we're likely to face a future akin to that depicted in Threads (1984) or The Road (2009), and I’m not sure anyone can truly prepare for it.
Something related in the novel Project Hail Mary affected me greatly: "I've run the best models I have. Crops are going to fail. The global staple crops are wheat, barley, millet, potatoes, soy, and most important of all, rice. All of them are pretty sensitive about temperature ranges. If your rice paddy freezes over, the rice dies. If your potato farm floods, the potatoes die. And if your wheat farm experiences ten times normal humidity, it gets fungal parasites and dies."
Sure, we may not be looking at freezing rice paddies, but flooding is absolutely affecting people all over the world due to the warmer air holding more moisture.
Not at all a happy thought, I'm sorry.