If you can determine an "up and coming talent" from a "mid" during a 1 hour job interview, you really should start up a HR consulting company. =)

The only way to figure it out is to hire the ones that seem good and see who blossoms.

Yes which is why your strategy doesn't work unless you're also really good at firing people (which brings its own set of challenges).

Over here we have a 6 month probation, during which you can fire people American-style by just saying "GTFO" with no reason required. (You can give one, but it's an art to tell the correct one, the wrong reasons will get you in trouble)

Yes, there are some people who shape up for 6 months and then start slacking, but they're definitely not the norm. You should be able to evaluate a person in that time and see if their personality fits the team and whether they are a net positive for the productivity.