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Another factor is that protocols propagate much slower than individual pieces of software

Email, the thing with the "@" symbol, was invented in 1971. Most people did not use it until 30 years later.

ActivityPub, the thing with the two "@" symbols, is now 5 years old. If we assume it will propagate twice as fast as email, it will take another 10 years until it hits the mainstream.



This also implies that a future generation social protocol with three "@" symbols will only take 7.5 years to become mainstream.


Calling it now: long-lived assistant personas that hold context for years at a time. "@engineering@orgdomain@openai.com where can I find the Frobber service documentation?"




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