Firstly, there is significantly less green energy available at night, when everything is supposed to be charging. The DoE wants 45% of all energy to be generated from solar. Add to that cloudy days, time of year, etc, and solar will need to be supplanted by lots of other energy sources. We need more capacity even if we don't use it all at once. (And don't count on those other sources being steady: winds vary, geothermal isn't very efficient, hydropower varies with climate) There is talk of rolling out more pumped hydro, but it isn't feasible everywhere, and it's not apparent if enough can be provided to cover extended lulls in green energy.
Second, passenger cars are just one part of the market, another huge part is trucking and fleets (as the road-miles estimate shows). There are several metric shit-tons of money to be made converting trucks to EV. All those trucks are gonna need a lot of power, distributed all over the country.
Third, as more coal/gas/non-renewable energy markets spin down, we need new green energy markets to cover lost capacity. That's not just "energy going over the wires", it's land, new construction, new interconnects, depots, etc.
Fourth, the capacity has to be increased sort of everywhere, to effectively replace gas stations in addition to providing more capacity in dense housing arrangements (40% of Americans live in apartments). This means more power runs to more places - not just gas stations/depots, but also throughout urban and residential areas. Gas and diesel today can be transported, but all that transportation needs to be supplanted with both storage and transmission of energy; imagine every gas station and apartment building having additional power run to it and more chargers.
At peak, to replace ICE with EV for all markets, we will need closer to 10GWh, just for the transportation segment being replaced. I don't think anyone has really explained to the public how big this thing is going to be.
Edit: sorry, I didn't see you specified per day, my bad. I'll see if I can find more concrete numbers for my claims; it does seem like my estimate is much higher than expected.
That's 371 times more than your estimate.
Firstly, there is significantly less green energy available at night, when everything is supposed to be charging. The DoE wants 45% of all energy to be generated from solar. Add to that cloudy days, time of year, etc, and solar will need to be supplanted by lots of other energy sources. We need more capacity even if we don't use it all at once. (And don't count on those other sources being steady: winds vary, geothermal isn't very efficient, hydropower varies with climate) There is talk of rolling out more pumped hydro, but it isn't feasible everywhere, and it's not apparent if enough can be provided to cover extended lulls in green energy.
Second, passenger cars are just one part of the market, another huge part is trucking and fleets (as the road-miles estimate shows). There are several metric shit-tons of money to be made converting trucks to EV. All those trucks are gonna need a lot of power, distributed all over the country.
Third, as more coal/gas/non-renewable energy markets spin down, we need new green energy markets to cover lost capacity. That's not just "energy going over the wires", it's land, new construction, new interconnects, depots, etc.
Fourth, the capacity has to be increased sort of everywhere, to effectively replace gas stations in addition to providing more capacity in dense housing arrangements (40% of Americans live in apartments). This means more power runs to more places - not just gas stations/depots, but also throughout urban and residential areas. Gas and diesel today can be transported, but all that transportation needs to be supplanted with both storage and transmission of energy; imagine every gas station and apartment building having additional power run to it and more chargers.
At peak, to replace ICE with EV for all markets, we will need closer to 10GWh, just for the transportation segment being replaced. I don't think anyone has really explained to the public how big this thing is going to be.