1) progress doesn't happen linearly, it's very coarse stepwise function (remember alphago?) 2) acceptance of an AGI actually being created is also a non-linear function - look at current definitely-not-AGI LLMs: some people think it's close, some people say that absolutely not, these are big matrices of numbers regurgitating words in plausible combinations and that's all - and these people won't change their minds easily one way or the other, thus declaring delivering of AGI will be very controversial even if we could agree on the definition.
It would have to be reproducible: one second of a snippet of a video clip of something; the next, the thing happening. You rewind it and play again. Scrub through and try to determine a different branch. At one timestamp, separation, peace, unknowing. In the next, flames and smoke and a flashing blur.
But no--the state of the world in that second versus the next could not have been predicted. It just happened, just so, and it would take longer to calculate the determinism than to adjust to the new.
