> After all, someone deposited $100, and SVB turned around and bought a bond for $100. If they were able to hold that bond to maturity, they would get $100 dollars back to make the depositor whole.
No. In your example, someone deposited $80 and SVB turned around and bought a bond for $80. In 10 years, that bond will be almost certainly be worth about $100. Because it’s reliable, theu can use that value for some of their long-view bookkeeping and projections, but it’s still an $80 asset purchased for $80 and worth $80.
Some months later, the market for those bonds starts to shift. That bond will still be worth $100 eventually, but now trades for only $70.
This puts SVB into a different risk position than they were previously. While their books still reflect a $100 asset in 10 years, they actually hold less value in assets now than they started with and are more vulnerable to a run than they were previously.
Where they could have immediately sold that $80 bond to meet an $80 obligation, they can now only sell it for $70. That’s a problem. It’s a bearable problem as long as nobody asks for too much money at the wrong time, but the fact that they’re so much more vulnerable invites people to do exactly that, in order to make sure they’re not caught as the last one out the door.
No. In your example, someone deposited $80 and SVB turned around and bought a bond for $80. In 10 years, that bond will be almost certainly be worth about $100. Because it’s reliable, theu can use that value for some of their long-view bookkeeping and projections, but it’s still an $80 asset purchased for $80 and worth $80.
Some months later, the market for those bonds starts to shift. That bond will still be worth $100 eventually, but now trades for only $70.
This puts SVB into a different risk position than they were previously. While their books still reflect a $100 asset in 10 years, they actually hold less value in assets now than they started with and are more vulnerable to a run than they were previously.
Where they could have immediately sold that $80 bond to meet an $80 obligation, they can now only sell it for $70. That’s a problem. It’s a bearable problem as long as nobody asks for too much money at the wrong time, but the fact that they’re so much more vulnerable invites people to do exactly that, in order to make sure they’re not caught as the last one out the door.