Yea, the predictions of someone driven by passion (in this case, a passionate dislike of Musk it appears) probably aren't great in general. But, below $100 seems reasonable - the stock could still be considered 'overpriced' in the current market (at least by P/E).
There's really not much to drive sales for 2023 either. Was watching a summary of new EVs for the year and I'll give him credit on the "jet powered" roadster as very cool, but all the new exciting EVs for the average consumer are coming from GM, Ford, BMW, Toyota (with a very interesting Hydrogen powered offering which is technology I had no idea was even this developed) and a few other smaller startups.
I think Ford really is going to get traction with the F150 Lightning. That's the smartest move you could make, i.e. electrify the #1 selling vehicle with something similar and practical. That's what people want, and if you convert that demo, you basically win over the rest.
> Toyota is taking on a lot of risk with their bet on Hydrogen
They took a lot of risk on it, but it was hedged with hybrids
, including PHEVs (with which they have done quite well), and while they are a little late to the party with a pure BEV, they are rolling those out to.
There isn’t any real sense where I see them gambling on hydrogen now except as a side bet.
The only non-commercial electric model they sell right now is the 'Proace City Verso', and it's not exactly a sales success. There is the BZ4X in the works (what a name) but you can only reserve it, they don't actually have them yet, production was halted, resumed, then halted again and they had a recall before they even shipped them (I don't know how that is even possible, the cause: wheel fell off).
The rest is - from what I can see - all hybrids, with minimal batteries. No Prius, Yaris, Aygo or Corolla with all electric drive, which would be an instant sales success. Their 2023 lineup? More hybrids. Meanwhile VW is on their second iteration of their all-electric line with four models across a broad spectrum.
I honestly don't get it. They can't be that stupid, and with the hybrid era pretty much over they have lost what was once a pretty good lead. They already had the drive train pretty much all they need to do at this point is to replace the mass of the ICE with a much larger battery pack and they're set to compete. That would still require a redesign of the vehicle but they have done that so many times I don't see that as an obstacle.
> all the new exciting EVs for the average consumer are coming from GM, Ford, BMW, Toyota (with a very interesting Hydrogen powered offering which is technology I had no idea was even this developed)
Toyota has a new FCEV? The only thing thet seem to be pumping new on the EV front is their new BEV, the bZ4X.
> I think Ford really is going to get traction with the F150 Lightning
I agree, I think this will be huge. Tesla's moat really is narrowing. I'm still rooting for them, though, and I'd like to see some of the other startups get traction as well.
The F150 Lightning has been terrible so far as a truck replacement. If you treat it as an oversized car it works (and many Americans do), but put any load on it and the range plummets to useless outside of small city runs.
I'd go all in under $100 based on the the fact they are environmentally sound, selling everything they produce, have a waiting list of buyers and have some big potential future products such as teslabot if they get them right. Musk is only 1 out of tens of thousands of (Mostly American) workers that make up Tesla, this would mostly go away if they change the CEO or Musk stopped trying to be Jesus.
