I think part of it is people not following his latest interviews. I was one of those thinking he wouldn't spend a day in jail, however he then proceeded to open his mouth and, in public interviews (Twitter spaces in particular) on the record admitted to a whole host of crimes. Coffeezilla in particular has done excellent work (NYTimes, WaPo, a youtuber with no budget is doing better investigative journalism than you): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4o_jPzBZSIo
It would be like if Epstein just came out on a public interview and said "yeah I hosted a pedophile ring for global elites as part of a CIA operation to get dirt on foreign nationals, in particular these ones: <insert list of names> but I didn't know what I was doing!"
I don't see how SBF can walk back all of his very public admissions to date. "Oh I was lying in all of those just to troll the internet", but then he can't make any statement in his own defense. He must really be one of those liars who believes his own bullshit, that's the only explanation for his behavior. He's totally going to jail at this point
While I do think that what Coffeezilla did was a terrific piece of journalism I still don't think that what SBF has fessed up to alone can be evidence of fraud. He has admitted to breaking the terms of services with his users but I didn't hear an admission of intent. He can still plead negligence in this case.
Don't get me wrong, I think that doing all of these interviews is really the nail in his coffin. I don't see how anyone can watch these interviews and not think that what this guy did was criminal. I could imagine in an alternate universe, where he just kept his mouth shut, SBF could get some kind of deal if he helps the bankruptcy courts claw back some of the assets improperly paid.
This guy is clearly a narcist who thinks that he will be able to win this in the court of public opinion by smiling at the camera and paying lip service.
SBF is incredibly, blindingly, arrogant. He thinks he can secure his freedom by proclaiming incompetence to anyone who will listen, but along the way happens to occasionally admit doing some very illegal things.
I imagine he is running his mouth in every ill-advised way possible so that when he goes to trial his lawyer can argue he is way too stupid to have knowingly committed a crime.
I feel like we're looking at a new type of narcissism and sociopathy, a generation whose criminals were weaned on social media and virtue signaling. Same old grift, adapted and weaponized in new forms for the digital era.
It would be like if Epstein just came out on a public interview and said "yeah I hosted a pedophile ring for global elites as part of a CIA operation to get dirt on foreign nationals, in particular these ones: <insert list of names> but I didn't know what I was doing!"
I don't see how SBF can walk back all of his very public admissions to date. "Oh I was lying in all of those just to troll the internet", but then he can't make any statement in his own defense. He must really be one of those liars who believes his own bullshit, that's the only explanation for his behavior. He's totally going to jail at this point