Except in the real world if people are actually putting their money down based on what those conclusions might be, you have to jump to something.
And the right thing to do is to jump to the most likely one based on the information available to you (adjusted for the consequences if you're wrong).
In this case, the most likely conclusion appears to be based on the info presented that it may be insolvent, and further, acting as if it is insolvent means you lose on limited upside if you're wrong, but avoid significant downside if you're right.
If Alameda is not a fan of this conclusion and if it's gaining traction in the community they can refute whatever might be wrong in the analysis and if nothing is wrong, provide the additional missing information that will correct the conclusion.
This is what CEOs and CFOs for public companies do everyday. Present their company's thesis to the public and refute analysts' theses where they think they're either wrong and/or don't have sufficient information. Why do you think they take so much time out of their schedules to do interviews on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc.
Alameda doesn't need to go down that route, but that doesn't mean independent analysis with conclusions based on incomplete information is a faulty process.
And the right thing to do is to jump to the most likely one based on the information available to you (adjusted for the consequences if you're wrong).
In this case, the most likely conclusion appears to be based on the info presented that it may be insolvent, and further, acting as if it is insolvent means you lose on limited upside if you're wrong, but avoid significant downside if you're right.
If Alameda is not a fan of this conclusion and if it's gaining traction in the community they can refute whatever might be wrong in the analysis and if nothing is wrong, provide the additional missing information that will correct the conclusion.
This is what CEOs and CFOs for public companies do everyday. Present their company's thesis to the public and refute analysts' theses where they think they're either wrong and/or don't have sufficient information. Why do you think they take so much time out of their schedules to do interviews on Bloomberg, CNBC, etc.
Alameda doesn't need to go down that route, but that doesn't mean independent analysis with conclusions based on incomplete information is a faulty process.