> - $10 billion to Reality Labs R&D in 2021 expected to increase annually will eat into earnings
Seems like that is a knob that can be changed at any time to give more profit.
> - Last year saw first ever decline in US Facebook user base, expected to continue shrinking (albeit slowly)
Including instagram? Regardless, this was right after the pandemic, some people will switch from screens.
> - Apple’s 2021 opt-in privacy change makes FB/Insta/Messenger/WhatsApp ads less effective permanently for the highest margin demographic (iPhone users)
This will be worked around - the impact isn't as large as people make it out to be.
> - Hugely negative public sentiment* hurts adoption and makes continued litigation headwinds likely
Doesn't seem to really be hurting IG adoption that much. The real risk is litigation.
> - Apple’s 2021 opt-in privacy change makes FB/Insta/Messenger/WhatsApp ads less effective permanently for the highest margin demographic (iPhone users)
> This will be worked around - the impact isn't as large as people make it out to be.
And you think Apple will stay put and do nothing? You can expect that as soon as they find a work around, Apple is gonna screw them again. They have no chances.
Depends on the work around. I don't think it is possible to get between app tracking data from some side channel, Apple will definitely block that through legal if not technical enforcement.
But they can use data from Android to infer user behavior for Apple users.
Also, they can still use tracking data from their own properties (IG, FB, Whatsapp).
Less and less people are using FB .. perhaps IG and Whatsapp yes, although you have to consider that privacy regulations can only get more stringent over time.
Will they go bankrupt ? I don't think so. Will they be able to grow at the rate of the last 10y? I don't think so.
If two apps can both identify a user then they will be able to combine that data. Apple took away the one identifier they controlled. What are they going to do next?
Seems like that is a knob that can be changed at any time to give more profit.
> - Last year saw first ever decline in US Facebook user base, expected to continue shrinking (albeit slowly)
Including instagram? Regardless, this was right after the pandemic, some people will switch from screens.
> - Apple’s 2021 opt-in privacy change makes FB/Insta/Messenger/WhatsApp ads less effective permanently for the highest margin demographic (iPhone users)
This will be worked around - the impact isn't as large as people make it out to be.
> - Hugely negative public sentiment* hurts adoption and makes continued litigation headwinds likely
Doesn't seem to really be hurting IG adoption that much. The real risk is litigation.