This position is like saying C or C++ won't eat ASM's lunch. While technically true since there's a lot of ASM code still being written, especially for extremely low-level or high performance code, the vast majority of C and C++ developers don't actually touch ASM (i.e. C/C++ dominate ASM in terms of number of developer hours spent).
I think you may also be overlooking the GCC backend for rustc and gccrs, a ground-up standalone reimplementation of the Rust language frontend for GCC. Both of those should drastically improve the coverage and availability of Rust to all the same platforms you would be using GCC to compile C code for.
Depending on the compiler support, you might get that architecture for free unless the vendor is providing their own C compiler. The harder part is that your new weird 8-bit architecture probably won't benefit as much from the strong nostd ecosystem of libraries, so the overhead of writing Rust won't be counterbalanced. Still, like I said at the outset, this is an extremely niche use-case. Rust doesn't have to wipe C or C++ from the map for it to crack that nut.
The harder nut for Rust to crack I think is actually C++. There are extremely large C++ codebases. Industry would love for there to be a significantly easier/cheaper story to tell in terms of integrating Rust with those codebases. That way you could set metrics around converting the codebase, new code has to be written in Rust etc. However, the challenge is that Rust can only replace components with very well-defined boundaries. Those boundaries are less clearly defined in C++ codebases than they are in C codebases (linkage + templates in particular are challenging). To truly crack the C++ nut probably requires solving this problem unless Rust codebases just starting eating C++ codebases commercially through development velocity (which is a much longer and harder path).
It's extremely important for meaningful commercial Rust adoption for legacy codebases to be able to adopt it incrementally (i.e. all new code is Rust). I think you're underestimating how much C/C++ code there is out there (Linux Kernel, Chrome, all of Google's internal infrastructure, all of Amazon's internal infrastructure etc). We're talking about many billions dollars worth of code that is never going to get rewritten and lines of code that keep accruing. Now competitors starting today may make other choices but there's enormous value to be had by cracking the nut of seamless integration of progressive migration (i.e. so that you can say "no more new C++ code"). The failure of this lesson is seen in banks that continue to run on Fortran at best and at worst other businesses that continue to run on old unsupported languages/technologies. Thankfully, I think the tech companies are engineering-led and understand this so I suspect they're paying people to figure out this problem.
I think you may also be overlooking the GCC backend for rustc and gccrs, a ground-up standalone reimplementation of the Rust language frontend for GCC. Both of those should drastically improve the coverage and availability of Rust to all the same platforms you would be using GCC to compile C code for.
Depending on the compiler support, you might get that architecture for free unless the vendor is providing their own C compiler. The harder part is that your new weird 8-bit architecture probably won't benefit as much from the strong nostd ecosystem of libraries, so the overhead of writing Rust won't be counterbalanced. Still, like I said at the outset, this is an extremely niche use-case. Rust doesn't have to wipe C or C++ from the map for it to crack that nut.
The harder nut for Rust to crack I think is actually C++. There are extremely large C++ codebases. Industry would love for there to be a significantly easier/cheaper story to tell in terms of integrating Rust with those codebases. That way you could set metrics around converting the codebase, new code has to be written in Rust etc. However, the challenge is that Rust can only replace components with very well-defined boundaries. Those boundaries are less clearly defined in C++ codebases than they are in C codebases (linkage + templates in particular are challenging). To truly crack the C++ nut probably requires solving this problem unless Rust codebases just starting eating C++ codebases commercially through development velocity (which is a much longer and harder path).