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I hold Monero since it's popular on darknet marketplaces.

With the global drug trade estimated at ~$8 trillion, if XMR captures 1% of that it's ~$80B.

XMR is currently valued at ~$4.3B so I'd be looking at 18.6x ROI

But I don't think this is the utopia use-case that crypto proponents support



Whenever I hear someone say “if X captures 1% of the market, that’s $Y Billion” I can’t help but feel like that’s backwards: If X captured $Y Billion of revenue then it’ll have 1% marketshare. Capturing 1% marketshare is not equally easy in all markets, it’s much harder to capture 1% of a very large market. There’s no hard-and-fast rule that “surely anyone working hard enough will get at least 1% marketshare”.


I agree with you.

It's so easy! I'll just capture 1% of global GDP and make $847B/yr

I think my thesis is directionally correct (I do hold XMR broadly for the reasons stated)

But the spirit of the post was to be ridiculous




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