Please most medicine isn't that complex either. Only a small minority of doctors really do anything the average person cannot do. Its really just that they've set up barriers to protect themselves. The really complex stuff in any field generally involves open ended research-y work and the reality is that that research work has fairly low demand. Though to clarify, I don't think we should be setting up more barriers to software development, I think we should be reducing barriers to all fields. I also do agree we should be teaching basic coding to all kids, it would compliment math classes well. I also don't think basic webdev roles will pay this much in 10 years when the average person knows how to code.
Some exposure to some kind of programming is probably a good thing, but I think this it is very unlikely for the average person to learn to code without either thousands of years of evolution, genetic engineering of humanity, or changing the definition of coding.
The average person cannot build a consistent mental model of complex abstract concepts. Schools have done lots of tests to prospective CS students trying to see how they'd be as programmers. The point isn't to see if they got the right answer, the point was to see if they could merely come up with a consistent mental model of what abstract symbols mean, and many people can't do that.
