Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

> That's not to say it's impossible for this to fail, the biggest and sharpest dumps happen during liquidation cascades.

If it happens, it's not a black swan event.



This is a wrong use of the term.

Black swans are rare but actually exist.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory


It's actually a correct use of the term. A “black swan” is something that is believed not to be possible – or, in retrospect, something that was believed impossible but happened anyway.

The term predates the discovery of black swans;

> However, in 1697, Dutch explorers led by Willem de Vlamingh became the first Europeans to see black swans, in Western Australia.[9] The term subsequently metamorphosed to connote the idea that a perceived impossibility might later be disproven. Taleb notes that in the 19th century, John Stuart Mill used the black swan logical fallacy as a new term to identify falsification.[10]




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: