People argue a lot about governments making decisions they disagree with, but something that I think is under-appreciated is the damage from unpredictable decisions. If you know how the government is going to act on some issue, for better or for worse, then you can make plans around that. What do you do if their future actions are an ever-shifting mystery? A few examples come to mind:
1. The Keystone XL oil pipeline was proposed in 2008. Construction was blocked by the Obama administration, unblocked by the Trump administration, and then re-blocked by the Biden administration, at which point the company trying to construct it gave up. In total, this process took 13 years and huge amounts of money, and nothing came of it. If there had been clarity and consistency in the government's policy here, the thing would either have been approved or rejected much sooner -- and either would have been a big improvement on what actually happened.
2. Covid-related rules have had much more harmful side-effects than they would have had if they were easier to predict. Rules surrounding masks, distancing, indoor and outdoor dining, and so on, all seemed to change a lot more frequently and arbitrarily than necessary in most places. To change the rules when the evidence and situation changes is one thing; changing them in seemingly random ways for dubious reasons is another. Even if the reasoning behind the decisions were consistent and well-thought-out, which is doubtful, there are advantages to having a predictable but sub-optimal policy rather than jerking everyone around in pursuit of perfection.
3. There are some federal student loan debt forgiveness proposals currently being considered in the US. I don't know how much, if any, will pass. If I were still in college, this would make me wonder: should I use money from a job to help pay my tuition, or just keep it? If I just take out more loans instead, and those loans get forgiven through a stroke of political luck a few years later, that's free money in my pocket -- but if that doesn't pan out, I'd end up paying a lot more interest. Whichever way Congress decides, I'd be better off knowing in advance -- but probably won't have that option, since the proposals seem to be (mostly?) retroactive in their design.
4. Finally, today's topic. If you apply for a green card, what are the odds that the paperwork just doesn't get processed? This is the kind of thing that would be really nice to know in advance, one way or the other.
Without expressing an opinion on what the decisions should be in any of these cases, I'll say: there's no decision so bad that unpredictability can't make it worse.
On 1) they refused to "give up" when it was blocked by the Obama administration. It was a dumb idea then and it's even dumber now. That's on the company, not the administration.
On 2) agreed, except we're working through a 1-in-100 year pandemic with idiots denying reality on one "side" of the debate about rules. The science advances, so that the advice changes, but it hasn't changed much. Get vaccinated, wear a mask, socially distance, wash your hands.
On 3) student debt is the dumbest own goal in US history. Provide funding for college, but do it as a loan, charge exorbitant interest rates and perverse incentives for colleges to charge more. The Federal government could start by reducing the interest rate to zero. Then reduce outstanding balances by a fixed percentage per year. People would redirect their available money into housing and consumables instead of paying back stupid loans.
On 4) the US immigration bureaucracy has been stupid for years. When I was doing some work in the US back in 99/00, we were on 90 day business visas. Each time we applied, it took more than 90 days to get approval. The last time, I received a letter saying that it would be a year before they would approve the visa.
I received the letter 6 months after I had left the US.
1. The Keystone XL oil pipeline was proposed in 2008. Construction was blocked by the Obama administration, unblocked by the Trump administration, and then re-blocked by the Biden administration, at which point the company trying to construct it gave up. In total, this process took 13 years and huge amounts of money, and nothing came of it. If there had been clarity and consistency in the government's policy here, the thing would either have been approved or rejected much sooner -- and either would have been a big improvement on what actually happened.
2. Covid-related rules have had much more harmful side-effects than they would have had if they were easier to predict. Rules surrounding masks, distancing, indoor and outdoor dining, and so on, all seemed to change a lot more frequently and arbitrarily than necessary in most places. To change the rules when the evidence and situation changes is one thing; changing them in seemingly random ways for dubious reasons is another. Even if the reasoning behind the decisions were consistent and well-thought-out, which is doubtful, there are advantages to having a predictable but sub-optimal policy rather than jerking everyone around in pursuit of perfection.
3. There are some federal student loan debt forgiveness proposals currently being considered in the US. I don't know how much, if any, will pass. If I were still in college, this would make me wonder: should I use money from a job to help pay my tuition, or just keep it? If I just take out more loans instead, and those loans get forgiven through a stroke of political luck a few years later, that's free money in my pocket -- but if that doesn't pan out, I'd end up paying a lot more interest. Whichever way Congress decides, I'd be better off knowing in advance -- but probably won't have that option, since the proposals seem to be (mostly?) retroactive in their design.
4. Finally, today's topic. If you apply for a green card, what are the odds that the paperwork just doesn't get processed? This is the kind of thing that would be really nice to know in advance, one way or the other.
Without expressing an opinion on what the decisions should be in any of these cases, I'll say: there's no decision so bad that unpredictability can't make it worse.