> All other viruses from animals were found very soon after an outbreak.
It took a long time to find the animal source for HIV and if memory serves, swine flu took some time to be tracked down.
> obvious now it didn’t
I’m open to the lab leak origin as a possibility, but it seems far from obvious either way. The evidence is still pretty circumstantial. It’s worth further investigation, but I don’t think we should rush to a conclusion.
HIV was a very different context and isn't remotely comparable to SARS2. It took many decades for HIV to spread to a consequential base of infected persons, from which it was then able to explode across the globe (due in part to the difference in travel then vs now of course). The reason it took so long to find the animal source, was because it wasn't perceived to be a critically important virus to deal with - it wasn't a priority - in the early decades due to the very low number of cases and related deaths. Depending on which origin theory you believe, it took anywhere from ~20 years to ~60 years, for HIV to go from a small number of cases to being globally threatening. SARS2 did that in a matter of months, so the priority is far different. SARS2 has killed 5+ million people in under two years, it took many decades for HIV/AIDS to do that. The US is still seeing more annualized Covid deaths than the world had total HIV/AIDS deaths annually circa 1990/1991, and that's with 64% of the US population having taken at least one vaccine dose.
The reason we haven't tracked SARS2 back to a starting animal source, is likely because there isn't one in that it didn't spread directly from an animal to humans without modification (they sampled it from bats, then they modified the virus, from which it was able to more easily infect humans); and if there were one, China aggressively blocked all efforts to discover the origins there (including destroying vital early data about the virus), which is beyond incriminating.
> All other viruses from animals were found very soon after an outbreak.
You assertion is still wrong. It took about 4 years to nail down MERS as coming from camels, and the link from bats to camels to people is still fuzzy. There are several hemorrhagic fever causing viruses believed to come from animals, but with. no known source. We still don't know where Ebola comes from.
People have been looking for the animal reservoir for Ebola for decades, and we haven't found it yet.
A lab leak could be the source for COVID-19, but the lack of an animal source so far isn't evidence of that. It's precisely a lack of evidence.
It took a long time to find the animal source for HIV and if memory serves, swine flu took some time to be tracked down.
> obvious now it didn’t
I’m open to the lab leak origin as a possibility, but it seems far from obvious either way. The evidence is still pretty circumstantial. It’s worth further investigation, but I don’t think we should rush to a conclusion.