That depends on if someone else gets in. AMD or Intel could if they wanted to - without the expertise it will be hard, but a few expensive years of research and they can get back into it. Hire a few TMSC people.
Or it could be someone completely new. The problem is hard, but solvable.
TMSC does have incentive to keep prices low enough that that doesn't happen. They also have other incentives to treat good customers well (though who the good customers are is an open question)
I am not an expert, but I thought it was more like a few expensive decades than years. Intel is already in this business and they have only been able to fall farther behind TSM even given billions in investment.
>a few expensive years of research and they can get back into it.
I haven't kept up much in the last couple of years, but back when I did, I was under the impression that AMD couldn't actually afford to do this. I know their condition has improved with the good fortunes of Zen, but is it enough that they could get back into semiconductor fabrication?
Or it could be someone completely new. The problem is hard, but solvable.
TMSC does have incentive to keep prices low enough that that doesn't happen. They also have other incentives to treat good customers well (though who the good customers are is an open question)