Apple has caved to pressure from China before multiple times, and it would not be surprising for them to do it again.

Examples :

Apple to withhold a new privacy feature in China : https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/8/apple-to-withhold...

iCloud Data Turned Over To Chinese Government Conflicts With Apple’s “Privacy First” Focus : https://www.cpomagazine.com/data-privacy/icloud-data-turned-...

Apple removes police-tracking app used in Hong Kong protests from its app store : https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/apple-removes-police-trackin...

I mean, that same situation already applies right now without this system being deployed. China already can mandate Apple to scan all iCloud or on-device photos for certain images etc. if they wanted to.

They answer that question. The answer they provide is that they would leave the Chinese market.

You might not believe them but they are pretty clear on that point: “we will not accede to any government’s request”

This is the standard you have to hold Apple to. As I said, you might not believe them – but if you don’t trust their statements on some level then it’s game over anyway.

Their record on not accepting requests from governments is not that good: another comment here mentions a few cases from China, but Russia has had some success too https://9to5mac.com/2021/03/16/russia-pre-install-iphone-app...

Did they in that instance say beforehand in clear and unambiguous terms that they would never do anything like that?

>You might not believe them but they are pretty clear on that point: “we will not accede to any government’s request”

What makes this time different from the other times they acceded to government requests?

Reminds me of the old Apple ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjmVN7mAMwc

There are about 69 countries where it is illegal to be gay, what if these countries want to know if you have a rainbow flag or two men kissing photo on your phone?

Offering that sort of service to China is the real reason this was developed.