I don't see how I'm missing the central thesis of [3]. If a strategy X develops for eliminating a virus Y, Y will undergo positive selection to escape targeting by X. X can be whatever target scheme our immune systems first fixate on, or a narrow targeting emergency vaccine. It really doesn't matter. The researchers focus on the defense mechanism kickstarted by the vaccine, because their point is we cannot be complacent. Point well taken, to be sure, but no one was being complacent anyway (I've seen a fair number of presentations on vaccine design at this point, and no one is touting anything as the silver bullet). Where I'm living, other mechanisms for managing the infection have not disappeared just because vaccination is now in play. The emergency vaccine is first and foremost, a way to generate herd immunity quickly. It will need to be supplemented with other strategies, both in the short term, and in the long term. The researchers have done valuable work in helping us better quantify the timespan over which we can expect escape, and thus allow us to better estimate the time by which we'll need the next wave of solutions in play. THE RESEARCHERS DO NOT ARGUE THAT THE EMERGENCY VACCINE IS USELESS.
I said it the first time, and I'll repeat it again: that a more comprehensive vaccine design will need to supplement the emergency vaccine was a given from day 1. For that same reason, design of "upgrades" to the vaccination program began a long time ago. The papers you're citing are collecting data which help such designs. None of them advocated that the emergency vaccination is useless.
> You are incorrect - the current spike protein focused mRNA based vaccines do not guarantee sterilizing immunity - that means you can be vaccinated yet still get infected and transmit the virus to others. Please cite your sources if you're going to make such claims.
Do you realize that the extent to which vaccinations stop transmission is on a continuum? It is not "on", or "off" in exact terms. The current COVID-19 vaccines immunize to an extent that the re-transmission rate is negligible. A leaky vaccine (the kind studied in the paper) barely makes a dent to the transmission rate, and if it does, only mildly. COVID-19 vaccinations are far from leaky, even if they are not 100% water-tight.
I'm not sure why you're using that paper either, to be honest. There are better ones, but they don't suit your point as well, probably? Here's one that directly talks about COVID-19, and openly acknowledges the risk that exists due to the ACTUAL leakiness of the COVID-19 vaccine, but also shows why this does not prevent herd immunity from emerging, and why it in fact poses a greater risk to those who choose to stubbornly remain unvaccinated, or (and more seriously) those who lack the resources to be vaccinated:
I'm not going to continue on this conversation, as I went through your other posts, and I have a fair grasp on what your position is. Continuing on trying to talk to you would be extremely stupid on my part. Have fun doing whatever it is you want to, and good luck.
> THE RESEARCHERS DO NOT ARGUE THAT THE EMERGENCY VACCINE IS USELESS
We are in agreement on these points, and to be fair I never made such a broad claim, nor did I intend to insinuate such.
You seem to be concerned with defending vaccination which is understandable, but I believe you're interpreting my statements as completely disregarding the utility and benefits of vaccines, which is not a position I support or attempt to argue.
> Do you realize that the extent to which vaccinations stop transmission is on a continuum? It is not "on", or "off" in exact terms.
We are in agreement on this point as well.
> The current COVID-19 vaccines immunize to an extent that the re-transmission rate is negligible.
A citation on this claim would be greatly appreciated - "negligible" is strongly worded there. FWIW I'm aware of the literature showing that vaccination reduces transmission, but I've never seen it dismissed as negligible.
Thanks for the citation you did share, it's indeed very relevant.
> why it in fact poses a greater risk to those who choose to stubbornly remain unvaccinated
We are in agreement that viral immune escape also poses a risk to the unvaccinated population, especially those who have not acquired natural immunity.
> I'm not going to continue on this conversation
> trying to talk to you would be extremely stupid on my part
I'm sorry I've put you off - my position is not set in stone and I do my best to keep an open mind when presented with conflicting evidence.
I get the impression that you think I'm incurably "anti-vax", so to clarify: my opinion is that vaccines are a powerful tool which must be carefully and strategically used.
I said it the first time, and I'll repeat it again: that a more comprehensive vaccine design will need to supplement the emergency vaccine was a given from day 1. For that same reason, design of "upgrades" to the vaccination program began a long time ago. The papers you're citing are collecting data which help such designs. None of them advocated that the emergency vaccination is useless.
> You are incorrect - the current spike protein focused mRNA based vaccines do not guarantee sterilizing immunity - that means you can be vaccinated yet still get infected and transmit the virus to others. Please cite your sources if you're going to make such claims.
Do you realize that the extent to which vaccinations stop transmission is on a continuum? It is not "on", or "off" in exact terms. The current COVID-19 vaccines immunize to an extent that the re-transmission rate is negligible. A leaky vaccine (the kind studied in the paper) barely makes a dent to the transmission rate, and if it does, only mildly. COVID-19 vaccinations are far from leaky, even if they are not 100% water-tight.
I'm not sure why you're using that paper either, to be honest. There are better ones, but they don't suit your point as well, probably? Here's one that directly talks about COVID-19, and openly acknowledges the risk that exists due to the ACTUAL leakiness of the COVID-19 vaccine, but also shows why this does not prevent herd immunity from emerging, and why it in fact poses a greater risk to those who choose to stubbornly remain unvaccinated, or (and more seriously) those who lack the resources to be vaccinated:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.01.20241836v...
I'm not going to continue on this conversation, as I went through your other posts, and I have a fair grasp on what your position is. Continuing on trying to talk to you would be extremely stupid on my part. Have fun doing whatever it is you want to, and good luck.