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Confluent S-1 (sec.report)
3 points by carlineng on June 1, 2021 | hide | past | favorite | 1 comment


A few tidbits after a quick reading:

* Confluent Platform (on-prem) accounted for 85% of revenue in 2020, whereas Confluent Cloud (managed SaaS) accounted for 15%. The S-1 makes it clear that Cloud is the future for them. This split makes it a bit tough to interpret their Gross Margin numbers though; as there's no breakout of Cost of Revenue between the two.

* Confluent Platform is subscription-based whereas Confluent Cloud is consumption-based, which further complicates modeling the business.

* Fiscal Year 2017 Cohort must have had some whale customers -- it looks larger than both FY18 and FY19 cohorts (p. 86)

* Expanding net loss -- 97% of revenue in 2020 vs 63% of revenue in 2019. This looks primarily driven by $111.9 million worth of stock-based compensation (tender offer, secondary sales) in the lead-up to the IPO. Excluding that (which is questionable, but still tells us something about how company operations are developing), net loss is ~50% of revenue

* Revenue Growth from 2018 to 2019 was ~130%, but they weren't able to maintain that meteoric trajectory in 2020; revenue growth has slowed to ~58% from 2019 to 2020




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