This discussion has been going on for a while. Though it's important to understand what exactly this is about.
Based on current trends the most pessimistic climate scenarios (most notably RCP 8.5) seem unlikely, mostly due to its large use of coal and better development of renewables than what was expected. Important to note: These scenarios became unlikely because human behavior and technology have developed in a different direction from what was projected. It's not about physical predictions being wrong.
There is a big caveat in all of this: There is still a lot of uncertainty in the understanding of the climate system and feedback loops. This may very well mean that a) RCP 8.5 is unlikely, because humanity will never use that much coal, but b) it could still be just as bad in terms of warming, because climate effects are worse than we thought.
Based on current trends the most pessimistic climate scenarios (most notably RCP 8.5) seem unlikely, mostly due to its large use of coal and better development of renewables than what was expected. Important to note: These scenarios became unlikely because human behavior and technology have developed in a different direction from what was projected. It's not about physical predictions being wrong.
There is a big caveat in all of this: There is still a lot of uncertainty in the understanding of the climate system and feedback loops. This may very well mean that a) RCP 8.5 is unlikely, because humanity will never use that much coal, but b) it could still be just as bad in terms of warming, because climate effects are worse than we thought.