Small and short term programs are still prudent because the value of the loan is a tiny fraction of the expected wages for the demographic. Every bank will lend to anybody some amount just because it's a virtual certainty that over their lifetime they will find some job and claim the earnings statistically speaking.
The problems start when the loans approach a lifetime of after-tax inflation-adjusted earnings. Then, there is no margin for error and the margin is padded with asset inflation/bubbles.
where i live specificaly, indian occupied kashmir, we have been in homes since 5 august 2019, no internet, no movement, no phones, no business, no schools till march, then corona happened and lockdown.
the thing is, i deal with asmall businesses all day, its my job but i have seen something like 90% drop in sales, many businesses folded and bank loans continued because credit sales arent getting paid and expectation is if i continue selling, some revenue will pass.
8 million people.
i personally dont own a credit card, dont have any loans and as a result, my income is spent on food, electricity and office staff salary, rent. i cannot imagine taking on a loan and repaying it back in these uncertain times but my clients are and its very difficult for the whole system.
i have a teacher relative who in his 50s has taken huge loans because he had no house for his family. today his salary is going to 60% bank, 30% school fees of children and rest is used at home. i can only imagine if he is let go or something happened to him. sad state of affairs
A good story would be "I have seen a 90% increase in sales," then it would make sense for you to borrow money from a bank to expand your business because something seems to be working well.
A bad story is "I have seen something like 90% drop in sales" and now you need a loan in order to delay bankruptcy in the hopes that sales will pick up before you can't afford your next bill or loan payment and default on a financial obligation. It is difficult to work out what the best solution is in this situation, often the answer is just to fold the business instead of taking on a personal liability as the owner of the business that could wipe out your personal savings along with a potentially already doomed business.
You see, the bank most strongly wants to lend money to people or businesses who are in the least need a loan. Put another way, the more desperate you are for money, the more reluctant anyone is to lending you that money. This is a fact of nature, no "app" can solve this problem.
I am sorry that you and 8 million other Kashmiris are struggling so badly. It is a humanitarian tragedy that doesn't get any attention due to the geopolitics of the situation, COVID, and the right wing nationalist tendencies of the current Indian administration.
Yeah. The bigger problem is in the past 30 odd years, according to some reports, this place has remained shut for over 7 years. 7 years of no business, no schools.
Granted it was usually for weeks at end with respites and all but the fact remains I live in a very uncertain place.
Funny that you mention banks lending to those who dont need it. I have a client who is paying a 20% interest on a mortgage backed loan. Mind=blown. Why? Because the particular bank has made it easy to get a loan, you call them and they give you the money in a couple of hours. That is a selling point here, not total interest outlay or processing fees.
Yes. You are right. Businesses do take a loan to delay "folding" in hopes of better days. Its just really bad.
For me, the issue is my clients get more sales, that is more fees for me. Once that falls, it affects my bottom line directly and the stuff follows down.
Sad
The problems start when the loans approach a lifetime of after-tax inflation-adjusted earnings. Then, there is no margin for error and the margin is padded with asset inflation/bubbles.