I think the term 'cargo cult' carries some religious history and other baggage that I wouldn't want conflated here, but your feeling that anything we've heard about software estimation is questionable is probably warranted.
IMO the theories have sprouted more from management which unfortunately is probably the best equipped today to view the trends over time and compare them to actual results (given the lack of empirical data). If we admit that our ideas of estimation have come from management, we should also admit their conflicts of interest in the matter and the various management fads that come and go. I think as humans we all search for patterns and try to generalize rules to solve our problems, even when we have an incomplete view of things to begin with.
Finally, even with a generalized rule we should realize how different people are team-to-team. I haven't worked on two teams where the same exact processes worked for everyone. The best teams and managers I've had will observe a team over time and tweak the various processes according to what works at that point in time. The worst managers were the ones who idolized a specific style or person and copy-pasted their opinions into their workplace without listening to the team.
IMO the theories have sprouted more from management which unfortunately is probably the best equipped today to view the trends over time and compare them to actual results (given the lack of empirical data). If we admit that our ideas of estimation have come from management, we should also admit their conflicts of interest in the matter and the various management fads that come and go. I think as humans we all search for patterns and try to generalize rules to solve our problems, even when we have an incomplete view of things to begin with.
Finally, even with a generalized rule we should realize how different people are team-to-team. I haven't worked on two teams where the same exact processes worked for everyone. The best teams and managers I've had will observe a team over time and tweak the various processes according to what works at that point in time. The worst managers were the ones who idolized a specific style or person and copy-pasted their opinions into their workplace without listening to the team.